March 10, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Wall Street still in denial on tariffs
Futures markets are substantially lower as U.S. stocks get ready to open. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 were down 1.64% and NASDAQ futures were off 1.87%. But I still say that Wall Street is in denial about the full economic damage from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Now posted: The full complete all-100-days version of my Special Report: Buys and sells–and other money moves for Trump’s first 100 days.
It’s taken a while–what with the distraction of another potential government shut down. BUT IT’S ALL NOW AVAILABLE. You can find the complete version under the Special Reports tab.
Headlines say House Republicans have new plan to avert shutdown–but we don’t have a vote count yet
The plan, as of 5 p.m. Washington time, would fund the government until March 14 ad suspend the debt ceiling for 2 years. As of this moment a vote is scheduled for 6 p.m. Washington time tonight.
Just a reminder of when the debt ceiling deadline is: How about January 1, 2025
In June 2023 after a bitter fight, Congress agreed to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt limit until January 1, 2025. Yep, January 1. Which means that even if Congress can fix the government spending crisis it created by its inability/unwillingness to pass a fiscal 2025 budget, we will’ move straight into a debt ceiling crisis. As with many Congressional deadlines, the January 1 date doesn’t mean quite what it seems.
Is there a universe where shutting the government a week before Christmas is a good idea? And yetbthat’s what republicans seem determined to do
It’s now not just that the MAGA wing of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives along with President-elect Donald Trump and who-elected-you co-president wanna be Elon Musk have killed the Continuing Resolution (CR) negotiated with Democrats by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. That bill would have kept the government’s doors open beyond Saturday’s funding deadline until March 14, 2025. There’s no way to put together a new package and pass it before funding for the government expires. These folks have also made it extremely likely that the shutdown will last for more than a few days. How?
House Republicans push government shutdown brinkmanship to the brink
Late Tuesday House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced legislation to prevent a government shutdown this weekend by extending federal funding until March 14, sending $110.4 billion to natural disaster survivors, and codifying a miscellany of policy changes. But Republicans are preparing to scrap Johnson’s plan to avert a government shutdown.
Special Report A New World for Dividend Investors Pick #3 Nike
Bookkeeping. I made Nike Pick No. 3 in my Special Report A New World for Dividend Investors. You can find the pick and write up i nmy long Special Report post. But I wanted to flag the pick here so no one would miss it. Dividend Pick #3: Nike (NKE)
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Another reason to buy Novo Nordisk: Kidney trial success for GLP
Back on February 20, I posted a video recommending a buy of Novo Nordisk (NVO). In the video, “Buy GLP-1,” I said that the stock, along with Eli Lilly (LLY) was riding the momentum of increased sales of GLP-1 drugs, originally developed to treat diabetes, as weight-loss drugs. Buy, I said, despite the huge run-up in the shares, because new trials and analysis of existing data were pointing to expanded uses for the drugs. Today, Novo Nordic announced exactly the kind of news that I had talked about.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Stock Pick of the Week Stripe
Today’s Quick Pick is Stripe. Stripe isn’t public yet but will likely go public in late 2024 or in 2025. This is an alert to prepare for this IPO. Stripe started in 2011 and is the “Paypal of its time.” I use both platforms and I find Stripe the more powerful and more user-friendly payment platform. Stripe recently did a private, series H deal that valued the company at $65 billion. Paypal, its major competitor (along with Square), has a market cap of $65 billion. I think this will be a very hot, oversubscribed IPO share you can make a quick profit by flipping the shares on IPO day. The recent Series H offer means that Stripe probably won’t go public until the last half of 2024, at the earliest, or more likely 2025. Which give you time to get your ducks in a row in order to put in a bid for some shares in the offering. Talk to your broker now to ensure you sign all the right paperwork and meet eligibility requirements for IPO offers. If you get that started now, you’ll be able to place an order for IPO shares when they’re available. Stripe revenue is at $14 billion with about 19% of the market share versus 42% for PaylPal. The company has just turned EBITDA profitable, a major milestone. This is an appealing IPO and something to start preparing for even though it may be a little ways down the road.
Long-term investors! This is the most important trend to think about–the global savings glut is ending
Way back in 2005, shortly before he became chair of the Federal Reserve, economist Ben Bernanke proposed that the world was seeing a long-term glut of savings. With the world awash in cash as a result of massive numbers of people in the developing world entering the job market, and as the Baby Boom generation (and others) hit its peak earning years, and as relatively low inflation and rising real wages freed up more cash for many consumers, long-term interest rates would stay low and remain low for longer. The thesis looks, in retrospect, to have been massively correct. The global economy did experience a long period of extraordinarily low interest rates, with interest rates turning negative for important chunks of the the world. Now, it looks like the long-term trend has gone into reverse. We’re headed into a period of cash scarcity.
My 10 Penny Stock Homeruns Pick #7 L’Occitane International LCCTF
Although I’m selling Natura out of my portfolio and my penny stock list, I do want to keep exposure to global beauty sector, however. I like the high margins and I like the correlation between sales of beauty products and rising incomes in developing economies. My pick for this iteration of my penny stock list is L’Occitane International (LCCTF)
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect..
The coming week I expect a battle for the market’s attention between the continued AI monster momentum story and the macro story on inflation and interest rates.
Ouch! There’s more to the credit crunch than interest rates as auto loan availability sinks
Access to auto credit declined in January as credit tightened across all channels and across most lender types compared to December, according to the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index. Investors who pay so much attention to interest rates to predict the trend in consumer spending need to spend more time on the other parts of the current credit crunch, the ability of loans. Consumers who can’t borrow can’t spend no matter how many times the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Hot Button Moves NOW Buy VKTX
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). Last week I suggested that you buy GLP-1 drug stocks like Eli Lilly (LLY) or Novo Nordisk (NVO). This class of diabetes and weight loss drugs is growing rapidly, with $36.5 billion in sales in 2023. Viking Therapeutics, a development-stage biotech company, recently announced Phase 2 trial results for its compound VK2735. This drug has the potential to be the best in its class when it hits the market. The company still has to go through Phase 3 trials and approval, but the data show VK2735 to be more effective at weight loss than its competitors. It could also be one of the few drugs of its kind to be available orally. The current round of trials shows that the drug will need to be injected less frequently than competitors. The company trades with a market cap of $9 billion (in contrast to Lilly’s $720 billion market cap) and is still small enough that it could be bought before the expensive process of taking a drug to market. (Although the company recently raised a secondary offering that would advance marketing plans.) I would buy this up to $100 a share and expect it to continue to zoom as more good news, I expect, on the oral version gets released this quarter. I am adding the stock to my online portfolios today, Thursday, February 29. You can find a write up on this pick on my subscription JubakAM.com and free JubakPicks.com sites.
Inflation, especially services inflation, looks sticky: PCE inflation up a fast 0.4% month to month in January
The headline, all-items Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at a 2.4% year over year rate in January. That was in line with what economists had forecast and down from the 2.6% annual rate in December. The core PCE, that is after stripping out more volatile food and fuel prices, climbed at a 2.8% year over year rate. In December the annual rate of core inflation had been 2.9%. But that was the end of the good news in today’s PCE inflation report.
Need more GLP? Buying Viking Therapeutics on trial results
Yesterday, February 28, development-stage biotech Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) announced results from a Phase 2 training of its GLP-1 weight-loss drug candidate that that showed the potential for the VK2735 compound two move to be best in class in the $36.5 billion (revenue) market for GLP diabetes-control and weight-loss drugs. I will add Viking Therapeutic to my Volatility Portfolio and to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio today, February 29, with a target price of $150.
Special Report: 7 Steps to Take Now to Protect Your Portfolio While You Still Reap Market Gains–Steps 1-5
Can you have your cake and eat it too? That’s basically the question stock investors and traders face now. Is there a way to build a strategy that will put profits in your pocket if the rally that set in at the end of 2023 continues? And that will hedge the downside so the your portfolio won’t tumble if the market does? Or that will at least lose less? Or that might even make some money on its downside bets. I think there is. And that’s the subject of this Special Report. Today Steps 1-3
Big deal inflation report on Thursday looking kinda “iffy”
On Thursday the financial markets get a new monthly PCE inflation report. The PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. And Thursday’s report on January inflation could be bad news for the financial markets,
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I think.the market to continue to come to terms with the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates later than expected in 2024 and will make fewer cuts than expected.
Economy looks good, economists say, but real estate credit market is scary bad
This probably isn’t a part of the credit market you watch–even if you watch the credit market. But 8.6% of commercial real estate loans bundled into collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) were classed as distressed in January, according to a report by analytics firm CRED iQ, Bloomberg reported Friday. That’s a 480% increase in distressed loans in CLOs since February 2023. The culprit, again, is real estate loans that have gone bad.
Don’t stand in front of the Nvidia train right now–shorts lose $3 billion and counting
Going into Wednesday earnings, Nvidia was the third largest short on the U.S market with about $18.3 billion in shares borrowed and then sold short, according to S3 Partners. Those short sellers wound up with $3 billion in paper loses after the stock soared Thursday on a big earnings and revenue beat.
Nvidia lifts most but not all tech boats
Yesterday, Thursday, February 22, Nvidia (NVDA) gained 16.40% at the close after beating Wall Street expectations on earnings and revenue after the market close on Wednesday. And then raising guidance for the rest of 2024. But what most interested me on Thursday were what tech stocks Nvidia carried higher with it–and which stocks it didn’t.
Economists get more optimistic about U.S. economy
Economics is supposed to be the gloomy science. So where’s the gloom? Stock markets are supposed to climb a Wall of Worry. So where’s the worry? In its latest survey (February 16-21) of economists (72 of them), Bloomberg found them positively giddy–for economists.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Doldrums from now through April
Today’s video is Doldrums from now through April.. Doldrums are, “a state or period of inactivity, stagnation, or depression” or, in nautical terms, the places where tradewinds converged and ships were left stagnant on the ocean until a storm or the wind picked up to get the vessel back in motion. The recent stock plunge of 26% from Palo Alto Networks (PANW) certainly doesn’t feel like a market that is stagnant or waiting for a change in the winds, but I think that’s what we’ll see going forward. After Nvidia’s report, there aren’t any big earnings reports expected until April and we’ll likely be moving sideways until the Fed sets the market sailing with a rate cut. The odds of the Fed not doing anything at the March meeting according to the CME Fedwatch are up to 90%. That rate cut expectation has now moved solidly to June or July with the CME Fedwatch polling at 75% for June and 90% for June or July. Until those rate cuts happen, and with little to no market-moving earnings reports expected in the months between, the stock market will be drifting in the doldrums while we wait for the wind to pick up.
Nvidia beats; stock picks up 7% in after hours trading
Well, optimistic analysts just weren’t optimistic enough about Nvidia’s (NVDA) fourth quarter 2023 earnings. The company reported adjusted earnings of $5.16 per share on revenue of $22.1 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of $4.60 a share and revenue of $20.4 billion.
Yes, I’d buy Palo Alto Networks today–with these caveats
After yesterday’s earnings report–the company beat Wall Street estimates for the quarter–and radically lower guidance for next quarter and the rest of 2024–total billings for next quarter will grow by just 2% to 4% and revenue for all of 2024 will grow by just 15% to 16% from 2023–shares of Palo Alto Networks (PANW) took a big hit right between the eyes. The stock fell 28.44% at the close and lost $104.12 a share to $261.97. What do I recommend? I’d say “buy” with a couple of caveats. Why buy?
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Hot Button Moves Now Buy GLP-1
Today's Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy GLP-1. GLP-1 isn't a stock, it's a booming class of diabetes and weight loss drug that is boo. Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Monjouro and Zepbound have found massive demand as the diabetes drugs have also been found to...
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