March 9, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Drill baby, drill pledge sends oil prices down today
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
Palo Alto Networks beats on earnings, but it’s not enough
Shares ofPalo Alto Networks (PANW) fell 5.32% in after-hours trading today, November 20. The company reported earnings for its first fiscal quarter after the market close. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.56 beat analyst estimates by $0.08. Revenue of $2.14 billion, an increase of 13.8% year-over-year, beat by $20 million. But it wasn’t enough for a stock that trades at 54 times trailing 12-month earnings per share.
Dr. Oz appointment news drives up Medicare Advantage stocks today
Health insurers traded higher today, November 20, after President-elect Donald Trump picked TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz to head the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the agency responsible for overseeing healthcare coverage for millions of Americans.
Special Report: “3 Strategies and 10 Picks for Juicy Returns in a Yield Drought”–first 6 picks
If you’re an investor looking for income, you’re facing what I’d call a Yield Drought. And this is no temporary dry spell. Things on the income investing front look they’ll get worse before they get better. Unless a financial crisis intervenes in 2025 to make everything else much worse and the yield story much better. Because, you see, there are two parts to the current Yield Drought.
Please watch my YouTube video: Quick Pick Goldman Sachs
Today’s Quick Pick is Goldman Sachs (GS). This is not a cheap stock. Goldman has had a good run in 2024 and is up 55% year to date. But this is the stock to use play the financial deregulation policies of the Trump administration. We’re moving from Biden’s administration that had a relatively high degree of scrutiny in merger and acquisition deals to an administration that will come close to approving any deal Wall Street proposes. The deal pipeline is full. Companies that were waiting on the election results to move deals forward will start the process as soon as the new President is inaugurated. Running an M&A deal is incredibly lucrative for an investment bank. Goldman Sachs is a big player in this market and will benefit from doing M&As and LBOs. This pick is how I’ll be playing the Trump financial deregulation and I’ll be adding it to my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow.
Gold is up today on Ukraine worries, but the trend points up for all of 2025
Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and U.S. interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank listed the metal among top commodity trades for 2025. “Go for gold,” analysts said in a note, reiterating a target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025.
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Homeruns Pick #4 NLLSF
I’m playing catch up on this Special Report. I’ve got picks #5, #6, and #7 almost ready to post. My 10 Penny Stock Homeruns Pick #4: Nel (NLLSF).
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect a week heavy with Fed-speak with the Federal Reserve’s pre-meeting quiet period due to start on Saturday, December 2, this week is the central bank’s last chance to shape market sentiment before the December 13 meeting of the Open Market Committee. That’s the Fed body that sets interest rates, just in case you’ve forgotten. The December 13 meeting date also includes the release of the quarterly update of the Fed’s Dot Plot projections on interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment for 2024.
The tough end of the credit cycle shows up in drop in U.S. venture capital funding
The US-based venture capital funding deals fell 40.6% in January-October 2023 from that same period in 2022, according to GlobalData’s Financial Deals Database. In dollar terms venture deals fell by 43.56% year-over-year.The US accounted for 35% of the total number of venture capital funding announced globally during January-October 2023. Meanwhile, its share of the total disclosed funding value stood at 48.8%.
It looks like the job market is slowing–although data is inconclusive
Initial claims for unemployment fell by 24,000 to 209,000 in the week ending November 18, the Labor Department said n Wednesday. That was the biggest drop since June. Continuing claims, the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits, slipped to 1.84 million in the week ended Nov. 11. That was the first drop in two months.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving filled with friends and family
No turkeys here in Italy so we’re making a pork roast with rosemary. At a farmhouse in Umbria with friends for the holidays. Someone saw a wild boar today on her walk in the vineyards. Back in Venice on Saturday. Back posting tomorrow. I wish everyone a great holiday.
Beijing readies big plan to bail out property developers but it might not be enough
China’s financial regulators are drafting a list of 50 developers eligible for a range of financing. In addition China’s biggest banks, brokerages and distressed asset managers have been told were to meet all “reasonable” funding needs from property firms. Plus the People’s Bank is trying to move up lending plans for the year and to provide at least 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of low-cost financing to the nation’s urban village renovation and affordable housing programs. Seems like a lot of money. And it is. But it may not be enough.
Nvidia, last of Magnificent 7 reports: These stocks are driving the market
On Monday Nvidia (NVDA) hit an all-time high. For 2023 through November 17, Nvidia and the other 6 stocks in the Magnificent Seven–Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA)–have gained more than 70%. The other 493 stocks in the Standard & Poor’ 500 are up 6% for that same period.
Nvidia beats on earnings and revenue but falls short of highest expectations
Nvidia (NVDA) beat Wall Street expectations again. After the market close today, November 21, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.02 on revenue of $18.12 billion. Analysts had projected adjusted earnings per share of $3.36 and revenue of $16.1 billion.
Nothing new in Fed’s November 1 minutes: Careful on rates
Federal Reserve officials at their November 1 meeting were agreed on a strategy to “proceed carefully” on future interest-rate moves and base any further tightening on progress toward their inflation goal. “All participants agreed that the committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information,” according to minutes of the November 1 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today, Tuesday, November 21. At the meeting the Fed held its benchmark lending rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the second straight meeting.
Rally or bear trap: Concentration in megacap tech stocks reaches a record high
I’m trying to decide if we’re watching a legitimate rally or a classic bear trap. If this rally is real, and likely to run for a while, investors should be putting cash to work even at market highs. If it’s a bear trap-you know one of those upward moves designed to pull in cash from the sidelines just before green turns to red in the market, then you ought to be using this moment as a selling opportunity, taking profits, and building cash for better barging down the road. A new survey by Goldman Sachs shows concentration in big tech stocks is at a record high. What does that mean?
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
Nvidia’ earnings report after the close on Tuesday, November 21, will be the big event of the short Thanksgiving week.
And now it’s May–market moves up date of first Fed interest rate cut
Until this week, the consensus was that the Federal Reserve would begin to cut interest rates in July (or maybe June.) As of Friday, November 17, however, the CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the odds of a Fed move from prices in the FedFunds Futures market, put chances of a interest rate cut at the central bank’s May 1 meeting at better than 50%.
Walmart says the D (deflation) word
In the company's Thursday earnings outlook Walmart CEO Doug McMillon uttered the D word. McMillon told investors that the world's biggest retailer is ready for a period of deflation in the United States over the coming months. The company plans to reduce prices on...
If this is such a great economy, why did Cisco and Palo Alto just cut cut guidance for 2024?
More real world dissent to Wall Street’s view that everything looks great for 2024. On Thursday Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares closed down 9.83% after the networking giant offered up significantly weaker-than-expected guidance for 2024. Wall Street analysts called the guidance “disappointing.” And the same day cybersecurity favorite Palo Alto Networks (PANW) dropped 5.42% after the company lowered its billings forecast for the fiscal 2024 year.
New claims for unemployment climb to three-month high
More news this morning pointing to a slowing economy. Initial claims for unemployment for the past week rose 13,000 to 231,000, the Labor Department Reported this morning. That’s the highest weekly figure in three months. And is yet another sign that the economy is cooling. Which would encourage the Federal Reserve to call an end to it interest rate increases and, maybe even, start to cut rates relatively soon. At least that’s how the bond market read the numbers.
Bond market pauses: Are bond prices ahead of themselves? Have yields dropped too far?
Today stocks and bonds both paused to think about yesterday’s huge rally.
Congress averts shutdown–kicks the can down the road to January
Well, you could knock me over with a feather! The House of Representatives passed a clean Continuing Resolution to continue funding the federal government after Friday at midnight. Don’t get all dewy-eyed and start talking about a return of functional government. The House bill, which is expected to pass and Senate in the next day or two and be signed by the White House with well over 10 hours to spare before the government shut down, only extends funding until January 19 (for 20% of the government) and February 2 (for the other 80%.)
Will Tuesday’s rally continue? 3 things I’m watching
One day fluke? The next step in an end of year Santa Claus rally? Huge bear market trap? The beginning of the next big Bull market?Tough questions to answer but important for figuring out an investment strategy for NOW. So here are three things that I’ll be watching in the next few days.
Core CPI inflation beats expectations by 1 basis point and stocks rocket higher
Core Consumer Price Index inflation came in at a 4.0% annual rate in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning, November 14. Economists had projected a 4.1% annual rate for October. And that 1 basis point, small as it was was enough to send stocks and bonds soaring. At the close, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.91%.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October to be critical in determining whether the Christmas rally narrative can be sustained.
Moody’s cuts outlook for U.S. credit rating to negative
Moody’s Investors Service turned negative on the United State’s credit rating outlook Friday after the market close, citing risks to the nation’s fiscal strength and political polarization. The credit rating company lowered the outlook to negative from stable, even as it affirmed the nation’s rating at Aaa, the highest investment-grade notch.
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