October 20, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Amazon’s (AMZN) earnings report on Thursday, October 24, will start the Big Tech Earnings Parade off with a bang. Wall Street analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of $1.14 a share for the third quarter. That would be up from 85 cents a share in the third quarter of 2023. That would be a 34% jump in year over year earnings. Which would certainly be a great lead in to earnings from Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) the following week.
September 23, 2024 | BRK/B, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LNG, PFE, PYPL, QCOM, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, VMC, Volatility, WST |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had a banner first half of 2024 with the index climbing more than 17% as of June 30. But two-thirds of that gain is attributable to just six stocks: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL.).Track the performance of equal-weighted version of the S&P 500–rather than the commonly tracked index where the contribution of any stock to the index is weighted by market cap–and the index was up just 3.9% in the first half of 2024. For the second half of 2024 and looking ahead to 2024, I’m not so much worried about the fundamentals of this extraordinary rally as I am by a failure of market imagination Everybody owns the same 6 stocks. Hey, I get the excitement around these stocks and the boom in Artificial Intelligence. I share it. Which is why I own shares of Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet in my online portfolios. But there are 494 other stocks in the S&P 500. And 2000 stocks in the small-cap Russell 2000.(Up 9% in the first half of 2024.)After a rally that has recorded 30 new record highs for the S&P 500 just the first half of n 2024, some of that other 494–or 2000–are actually better stock buys, and likely to out perform the 6 stocks everybody owns from their current record high prices. But which ones? That’s what my Special Report: “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally” is all about.
September 16, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM |
Apple shares were down 2.78% today, Monday September 16, as pre-order sales to the iPhone 16 showed lower than expected demand for the new phones after a lackluster update that included fewer AI features than competitive smartphones.
September 10, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM |
Apple (AAPL) today lost its court fight over a €13 billion ($14.4 billion) Irish tax bill. The European Union’s Court of Justice in Luxembourg backed a landmark 2016 decision that Ireland broke state-aid law by giving Apple an unfair advantage by awarding the company a lower tax bill. Apple will now be forced to pay $14 billion in back taxes.
September 7, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
There’s a good possibility of an AI “nothing-burger” from Apple (AAPL) on Monday, September 9, when the company rolls out its latest iPhones. Which are supposed to mark Apple’s advent as a serious smartphone AI player. All indications are, however, that Apple’s AI features on the iPhone will be distinctly underwhelming. And that’s a potential problem for the stock-up 15.08% for 2024 and ahead 13.67% for the last three months as of the close on September 6.
July 28, 2024 | AAPL, AMZN, Daily JAM, MCD, Morning Briefing, MRK, MRNA, MSFT, PFE |
Earnings, earnings, earnings. From members of the Magnificent 7: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL). in the consumer sector from consumer stocks Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald’s (MCD), Mastercard (MA).From drug companies Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK). And from Big Oil Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL), and BP (BP). Here’s what I’d watch for.
July 21, 2024 | AAPL, AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
I expect technology sector weakness to continue with earnings worries still unanswered. What could put an end to selling in tech stocks? The NASDAQ 100 is down almost 4% in the last week. Certainly earnings news that showed earnings growth at the companies in this sector robust enough to justify paying a premium for these shares would be a big help Unfortunately, the coming week isn’t going to bring enough earnings good news among tech shares to make this case. Among big tech stocks only Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) are scheduled to report.
June 11, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Traders and investors reacted to Apple’s (AAPO) AI announcements during the first days of the company’s World Wide Developers Conference with enthusiasm today sending the stock up 7.26% in June 11 trading. That’s a new all-time high for the stock. Technology analysts were at best mixed. Their more tepid response set the tone yesterday when the stock dropped 1.9%. Typical was this from KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel in a client note: Apple’s AI enhancements aren’t compelling enough for the average consumer to purchase a new device. I’m with the tech folks on this and today I made Apple a sell in my Special Report: Trade Wars! Trade Wars!
June 8, 2024 | Daily JAM |
When I was small, one of my favorite songs was The Teddy Bears’ Picnic with its warning refrain, “Don’t go out in the woods today, you’ve in for a big surprise. Not exactly designed as investment guidance, but pretty good investment advice all the same. This week will see two potentially big market moving surprises. Potentially.
June 5, 2024 | AMAT, ASML, Daily JAM, Long Term, Mid Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks |
This Special Report; Trade War! Trade War! gives you my recommendations for what to sell, where to take profits, and where to trim as seen through the lens of a likely global trade war. Here are my choices with my first 3 sells
May 6, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Tech Worries. In my last video, I suggested the normal advice of “go away in May” may be valid again this year because of the revenue patterns I’m seeing in the technology sector, especially tech/consumer stocks, like Apple (AAPL). On May 2nd, Apple beat $1.50 expectations by reporting $1.53 a share. Revenue also beat at $90.8 billion (Wall Street expectations had it at $90.3 billion.) iPhone revenue was at $45.96 billion, down from $51.33 billion in 2023. The stock went up by about 6% after the report, even though it was a modest beat of already lowered expectations. Apple also announced an increase to its dividend of $.25 a share and a buyback program of $110 billion. CEO Tim Cook announced plans for the iphone to add AI in the future as Apple catches up with the use of AI at competitors such as Samsung. This promise of a wonderful future, combined with a modest beat, was enough to boost the stock. This is just one more example of a pattern I’m seeing in the sector currently where technology companies make vague, date-less promises of bigger and better things to come, with very little tangible proof or actual products. Investors are being asked to pay as if these are growth stocks, when in fact these promises may never come to fruition. The market is trying to extend a rally but “Go away in May” may be the safer bet.
May 3, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, NVDA, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Go Away in May? Historically, the months between November and May were much more profitable than the months from May to November. The saying “Go away in May” came from that distribution of returns, suggesting investors should get out of the market during the less profitiable May to November period. This advice holds particularly true for tech stocks, which have very clear seasonal revenue patterns. For example, in March of 2023, Apple (AAPL) earned $1.52 per share, in June earnings per share went down to $1.26, in September they went back up to $1.46 and then the company blew it out in December to $2.18. While this isn’t indicative of the entire tech sector, it’s a good example of this seasonal pattern, especially for technology stocks with big consumer businesses. So what about this May? I’d say, you can probably “go away”–but maybe a little late than usual. NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings come out on the 22nd of May and will likely be giant. Current Wall Street estimates have earnngs per share at $5.14, up from $.88 a year ago. After that,the technology sector is relatively quiet. The next big tech event to look out for is Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June, which could result in “buzzy” tech announcements about AI. After that, I don’t see a lot of reason to be overweight technology and I’ll look to take some profits. I think this amounts to a modest Go Away in May call.
