June 8, 2022 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Millennial, Top 50 Stocks |
My second Fundamental Value Pick in my Special Report 5 Fundamental Value Picks is Applied Materials (AMAT). Let’s go to the classic formula for calculating fundamental value of an asset, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, known affectionately by generations of MBA students as CAPM. Don’t worry. I’m not going to force you into the sometimes arcane mathematics of CAPM. Instead I’m going to use the formula as a framework for understanding what matters in calculating a fundamental value for a stock–as well for understanding how these factors fit together.
May 31, 2022 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Millennial, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
There are bargains in this market. But how do you find them? Not, clearly, by looking to see what is cheaper than it was. The fear that’s stopping so many investors from loading up the truck now on Nvidia or Disney or Microsoft or Johnson Controls–all stocks that I really, really like for the long term–is that today’s “cheap” stocks will be tomorrow’s even “cheaper” stocks. So it’s time to dig into your investor’s toolbox and dust off those tried and true techniques for using company fundamentals to figure out the value of a stock. And for separating the real values in this sell off from those cheap stocks on the road to being cheaper.
March 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Right now investors and traders are getting a crash course in how vulnerable global supply chains are to disruption–especially when they become really extended. And how a supply chain disruption can ripple out in unexpected directions thanks to the complexity of many key products.
First, the Pandemic took a hammer to the complicated logistical systems required to get Commodity A to Sub-assembler B in order to make Consumer good C that would show up for sale around the world. Just in time inventory, it turned out, didn’t work very well when nothing arrived on time. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has–or at least it should have–reminded us that global supply chains can resemble Whack-A-Mole.
February 17, 2022 | ALB, AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and second YouTube video “Strong hands vs. hot hands” went up today. Today I’m looking at a few stocks that exemplify what most experienced traders know: some hands are steady, and some are not. So when Nvidia announced this week that it expected to see supply chain issues (despite beating earnings and raising guidance), the stock fell. Similar things happened to chip-making equipment supplier Applied Materials and Albemarle, the lithium maker. I’m taking this opportunity to add some of these stocks into my portfolios. What about you?
January 18, 2022 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, MSFT, Short Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
In the first section of this Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy What to buy” posted back on January 11, I said that I’d look to buy in tiers. And thus stagger my buying to take account of any earnings season selling and any volatility around the Fed’s January 26 meeting. In the first tier, I said, back on January 11, I said I’d look for former momentum and earnings growth favorites, especially in the technology sector, that had taken big hits in the selling from the November 19 high. The three first tier buys were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and and the first three buys back on January 11 were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, and Adobe (ADBE). I said I’d name my second tier picks after bank earnings. Which means today.
January 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, You Might Have Missed |
If you worry about what worries me right now, I know what you want to know. When will the selling stop? When will it be a good time to buy “bargains”? And What stocks should you buy when you begin to buy? Those are the three questions that I’ll answer in this Special Report. Along with listing my first three buys on this selling.
December 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Judging from the close of Monday’s trading session, there looks to be enough fuel for a Santa Claus rally to end 2021. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.38% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.98%. The NASDAQ Composite was ahead by 1.39% and the small cap Russell 2000 was higher by 0.89%.
December 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.14% and market leading stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) dropped 0.78%. Big drug stocks made up the only sector in the green as Pfizer (PFE) rose 2.59%,and AbbVie (ABBV) gained 1.23%. The fears yesterday were that the Omicron Variant of the Covid-19 virus would slow the economy and that Senator Joe Manchin had just killed prospects for any stimulus from the Biden Administration’s Build Back Better bill. Today the S&P 500 closed up 1.78%. A market leader like Applied Materials rose 4.42%. A big drug stock such as Pfizer was down 3.39%.
December 7, 2021 | AAPL, AMAT, ASML, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, NXPI |
Here we go again. It’s not that we really have any more information about the Omicron Variant–we certainly don’t know what its effects will be on global economic acuity–but just as fears that the Covid-19 variant would send the world back into lockdown crushed stocks last week, this morning, December 7, a belief that Omicron won’t be all that bad has taken root and stocks are soaring in morning action.
December 1, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks, MGM, Millennial, OTLY, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
After a huge rally like we’re had this year, it’s easy to fall into one of the most common buy on the dip traps. Just because a stock is cheaper than it was, it’s not necessarily a bargain. There’s nothing that says a stock has to return to its previous price after a dip. And especially that it has to return to that former price on your schedule. Let me use Disney (DIS), one of the stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter, as an example.
December 1, 2021 | AMAT, ASML, Daily JAM, Short Term |
After yesterday’s selling, we’re getting a bounce today. But, significantly, the bounce in stocks is much less “bouncy” than the Monday bounce from Friday’s plunge.
November 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter |
Oddly, the big sell off on Friday hasn’t created as many buys among the 25 stocks in the Dip-O-Meter as you might expect. Part of the reason is that the run up in stock prices in 2021 has been so fast that many stocks are still way above the 2021 lows. It’s hard to call Nvidia (NVDA), for example, a buy on the dip opportunity when the stock even Friday’s 3.58% drop to $315.03, is still way above the 200-day moving average at $190.81. Part of the reason is that, in my opinion, we’re looking at some negative trends in the economy, from the resurgence in Covid infections, and from inflation/interest rates/the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2022. Do you really feel in a rush to buy Disney at $148.11 after Friday’s 2.13% drop to $148.11 when it looks like park attendance is going to get slammed again by the Pandemic? Or MGM Resorts International (MGM)? Part of the reason is that existing negative trends haven’t bottomed out. Volkswagen (VWAPY) doesn’t look like a bargain at $18.50 after Friday’s selling because China’s auto market remains in turmoil, for example. Same with Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) on slumping global copper demand. Which doesn’t mean I’ve got nothing to recommend for buying after Friday.
