September 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Volatility |
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again from $128.83 on August 28 to $102.83 on September 6. But the shares are up again–15.83% last week–to $116.78 This canary seems to be sending a rather more complicated message than “Look I’m dead! See my feet in the air?” What’s the message, though?
September 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Yesterday the DOJ sent subpoenas to Nvidia Corp. and other companies seeking evidence that the chipmaker violated antitrust laws. The DOJ, which had previously delivered questionnaires to companies, is now sending legally binding subpoenas that require recipients to provide information. That takes the government a step closer to launching a formal complaint.
August 30, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
I was hoping that Nvidia (NVDA) would take a bigger dip on its “disappointing” earnings news last week. But a 7% or so drop looks like the best we’ll get. And I certainly want to own these shares before the revenue from the new Blackwell chips kicks in during 2025. I already own these shares in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. Today I’m adding them to my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio. The bad news out of Nvidia last week in its August 28 earnings report?
August 28, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
A report Saturday said one of Nvidia’s next generation chips will be delayed by a just-discovered design flaw. Tech news site The Information, citing a couple of industry sources, said volume shipments of the Blackwell B200 chip would be delayed some three months.
August 27, 2024 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Mid Term, MSFT, NVDA |
Remember the good old days–say, 2023–when all you had to do was slap AI in the name of a company and the stock would soar? I kept waiting for AI Burgers made from AI cows, or AI Shoes, which used AI machine learning algorithms to tell you what size shoe you needed. This investor embrace of all things AI led to the fear that there was an AI-stock market bubble that would send the entire stock market into a very painful bear market when it broke. The appetite for AI stocks is still huge–witness the rebound in Nvidia (NVDA) shares that added $400 billion to the stock’s market cap in a four-day recovery from the “sky-is-falling, we’re-headed-to-a-recession stock market retreat. But this stock market still has a big AI problem. We will find out how big when Nvidia reports earnings after the close tomorrow, August 28. Here’s the problem: Most AI companies aren’t making money.
July 2, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts |
I can’t give you a definitive call on the top for this stock and this rally, but I cam sure of one thing, I don’t want to sell Nvidia before the company’s new Blackwell chip architecture has hit full launch speed in late 2024 and 2025. My read is that this is the “perfect” AI chip for this moment in the AI boom.
June 25, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
I think there are reasons to worry about Nvidia’s valuation and its ability to continue to generate revenue and earnings growth at a pace that would support a forward price to earnings ratio above 40, but I think those re worries for 2025. In 2024, I don’t see anything that disrupts the AI boom story. Over the next six months or so I’d like to be buyer, especially id I can get the shares on a temporary drop. So yesterday’s drop to $118 was a promising development. There was technical support at the 50-day moving average near $100 so there was a chance the stock would move lower. Today, Tuesday, June 25, though, shares of Nvidia rallied, closing ups 6.76% at $126.09. This doesn’t mean the drop is over or the opportunity is lost,
May 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Yesterday, May 22, after the market close, Nvidia (NVDA) crushed Wall Street projections for revenue and earnings for the company’s fiscal first quarter of 2025. Nvidia reported that revenue soared 262% year-over-year to a record $26 billion, marking an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 461% to $6.12. The Wall Street consensus had called for revenue of $24.65 billion and earnings per share of $5.59. And it even beat the Wall Street “whisper number,” which in a bullish momentum situation like this runs considerably above the official consensus. Data center revenue hit a record $22.6 billion, up 427% year over year. Data center revenue represents 87% of Nvidia’s total sales. For the current fiscal second quarter of 2025 Nvidia told investors to expect sales of $28 billion, up 107% year over year.
May 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I’m expecting a key moment for momentum in a market that keeps setting new records on Wednesday, May 22, when Nvidia (NVDA) announces revenue and earnings for the company’s first fiscal quarter of 2025 and the quarter that ended in calendar April 2024. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is looking for the company to earn $5.17 a share. That would be a huge leap from 88 cents a share in the April 2023 quarter. The projections for revenue are every bit as optimistic.
May 13, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Special Reports |
This special report is about the history of the future. And how to score big returns by investing in the future. By studying the past histories of the future, we can understand what kind of bets on the future pay off with outsized gains. Think about it this way.
May 3, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, NVDA, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Go Away in May? Historically, the months between November and May were much more profitable than the months from May to November. The saying “Go away in May” came from that distribution of returns, suggesting investors should get out of the market during the less profitiable May to November period. This advice holds particularly true for tech stocks, which have very clear seasonal revenue patterns. For example, in March of 2023, Apple (AAPL) earned $1.52 per share, in June earnings per share went down to $1.26, in September they went back up to $1.46 and then the company blew it out in December to $2.18. While this isn’t indicative of the entire tech sector, it’s a good example of this seasonal pattern, especially for technology stocks with big consumer businesses. So what about this May? I’d say, you can probably “go away”–but maybe a little late than usual. NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings come out on the 22nd of May and will likely be giant. Current Wall Street estimates have earnngs per share at $5.14, up from $.88 a year ago. After that,the technology sector is relatively quiet. The next big tech event to look out for is Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June, which could result in “buzzy” tech announcements about AI. After that, I don’t see a lot of reason to be overweight technology and I’ll look to take some profits. I think this amounts to a modest Go Away in May call.
April 9, 2024 | AMD, Daily JAM, GOOG, Morning Briefing, NVDA |
Nvidia (NVDA) doesn’t report earnings until May 22. But the report is already shaping up as critical for the stock. Analysts see the company reporting earnings of $5.13 a share for the quarter, up from just 88 cents a share in the same quarter of 2023.
But the short-term earnings numbers aren’t what’s most importance right now. Nvidia has roughly 90% share in the market for AI-accelator chips. That’s put a big target on the company’s back. No one expects Nvidia is maintain that 90% share–which is okay since the market is growing so fast. Last month, analysts at Bank of America said the market could reach anywhere between $250 billion and $500 billion over the next three to five years. That was a big jump from their earlier estimate of less than $250 billion. The question is How fast all the efforts to compete with Nvidia will eat into that market share.
