Jubak Picks
February 20, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
Walmart (WMT) forecast lower than expected profit for 2025. The company said it’s anticipating adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share, below the average projection of $2.74 a share by Wall Street analysts. As of noon New York time today Walmart shares were down 6.8% as the lower guidance outweighed strong results for the just concluded quarter. Both top and bottom lines came in higher than Wall Street expected in the retailer’s quarter and fiscal 2025. Quarterly revenue increased 5.3% year over year to $183 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were up 10% to 66 cents a share.
February 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
February 14, 2025 | AAPL, ACAD, AGN, ALV, AMZN, AUY, BABA, BG, BGC, BHP, BMY, CHK, CMI, CNI, COH, CSCO, CX, Daily JAM, DD, DE, DHR, DXJR, EBAY, ENB, EUM, FB, FCX, FLR, FLS, FTV, GLD, Jubak Picks, MPC, OGXI, OKS, PEP, PFXF, POT, PXD, QCOM, RSPP, RYN, SDRL, SFTBY, SH, SLB, SPWR, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is China Buys More Gold. Gold seems like a good asset to own right now but it’s also trading at record highs. So while gold is safe, especially if inflation goes up, how much higher do you expect gold to go? One thing to look at it is who is emerging as a buyer. Central banks have been buying gold to hedge risks and diversify, which has contributed to the record highs. Recently, the Chinese government announced that 10 big Chinese insurance companies will now be allowed to put up to 1% of their portfolios into gold. This hasn’t been allowed in the past and will provide about $27 billion for new gold buying. This is also just another sign that countries and businesses are looking to hedge risk by buying gold and it’s one of the safer places to be in an uncertain market.
February 8, 2025 | Daily JAM, GLD, Jubak Picks, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is “Gold via 747.” It is extraordinary when big New York banks like Goldman Sachs have hired 747s to fly physical gold from London (where it’s cheaper) to New York. Most investors don’t own a 747 and may not be able to do this trade, but it is indicative of the high degree of uncertainty in the market. Flying gold from London to New York is a truly extreme move, and you wouldn’t see that without an underlying fundamental stress in the market. Gold is trading near all-time highs and you may not make a whole lot of money buying gold ETFs from here, but you would be avoiding some risk in the rest of the market. I have the GLD ETF in my Jubak Picks portfolio and will likely look for another to add.
February 2, 2025 | BUD, Daily JAM, IWM, Jubak Picks, RWM, Volatility |
Stocks moved down slightly on Friday–with the Standard & Poor’s 500 off 0.50% and the NASDAQ Composite down 0.28%–as investors started to revise their belief that President Donald Trump wasn’t really serious about raising tariffs.
Now that the White House as made it clear that the first round of tariffs–on Canada, Mexico, and China–will go into effect on Tuesday, I think we’ll see more downward movement in stocks. I don’t expect the drop to be swift or especially severe to start. That will have to wait until the economy starts to register the effects of higher prices for so much that we import. But I’d like to get ahead of this revision in sentiment with some sells now.
January 26, 2025 | AAPL, BA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, MSFT, T, Top 50 Stocks, XOM |
This week its earnings, earnings, and earnings. From the tech giants and more. This week, we’ll discover three things. First, are tech company earnings as good as the market clearly expects. I think that with the exception of Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) the answer will be Yes. Second, how much of this good news is already priced into the recent rally. These stocks could retreat even on news that’s as good as expected. An advance will, I think, require a surprise or two. And, third, how worried is Wall Street really, given the recent boom in all things AI, about capital spending at the big AI companies and falling profit margins.
January 13, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, KO, Mid Term, NVDA, PANW, Top 50 Stocks |
Enough downside still ahead so that it makes sense to sell some of your portfolio, take some profits, and raise cash on the prospect of a buying opportunity or two ahead? In my opinion, Yes.
January 9, 2025 | CNH, CORN, Daily JAM, DBA, DE, DJP, Jubak Picks, MOO, NTR, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
U.S. farmers harvested some of the largest corn and soybean crops in history this year. The timing couldn’t be much worse for farm incomes and commodity prices. And for shares of farm stocks.
January 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Last year, Nvidia’s stock experienced a 16% increase over the 10 days following the beginning of the huge Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. This year Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to deliver the opening keynote speech at 6:30 p.m. Las Vegas time. (That’s 9:30 New York time.) I’d expect a couple of volatile days for Nvidia shares following Huang’s talk.
January 2, 2025 | BYDDF, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
Today January 2, Tesla (TSLA) reported a big miss on fourth quarter deliveries. And an overall yearly drop in deliveries. For 2024, Tesla delivered 1.78 million vehicles, missing analyst estimates for 1.8 million, and a total below 2023’s 1.8 million vehicles delivered. It was the first year-over-year drop for Tesla. Shares fell 6.08% in the regular session on January 2. Meanwhile, China’s BYD (BYDDY) reported global deliveries of approximately 4.3 million passenger cars in 2024. Though 2.5 million of those were hybrids, BYD’s pure EV total was around 1.76 million for the year. Certainly within knocking distance of Tesla. The causes?
January 2, 2025 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, LNG, Morning Briefing, UNG |
And on the subject of natural gas.
On Wednesday, January 1 Russian energy company Gazprom said it was no longer sending gas across Ukraine because that country had decided it would not renew a deal allowing Russian gas to transit its territory. The action ends an energy supply route that dates back some 60 years.
About 5% of the supply of Europe’s natural gas flows through Ukraine. Despite the ongoing Russian invasion,Ukraine had continued to allow Russian oil and gas to cross its territory to serve its European neighbors. That generated revenue for Kyiv and Moscow to use in funding that war. This moves comes as the United States is facing a major cold wave that could persist into mid-January
December 23, 2024 | AMD, Daily JAM, F, Jubak Picks, MRNA, Stock Alerts |
More than time to make the sells to harvest tax losses for 2024. It’s especially important if the volatility in some of 2024’s favorite stocks. like Nvidia (NVDA) let you to sell and then re-buy and then make sell again in 2024. Keep in mind the “wash sale” rule. The wash sale rule prohibits claiming a loss on a security if you buy the same or a “substantially identical” security within 30 days before or after the sale. Which is only a difficulty if you think that a stock you’re selling today is likely to have a huge rally by February 1. I think there are quite a few sell candidates where the shift in policy from the out-going Biden Administration to the incoming Trump Administration make getting caught in a regret rally is extremely unlikely.
