Today I added shares of Tencent (TCEHY) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my portfolios at least partly on the strength of China’s AI rally. Tomorrow, March 25, I’d adding shares of Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios.
On Monday, March 24, I’m adding these Tencent ADRs (TCEHY) TO my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios.
Just because we’ve seen this page from the play book before and just because I’m skeptical about the long-term effects of this policy doesn’t mean I don’t want to own the China rally now. On Monday March 24, I’m adding the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my Perfect Five ETF Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios. (In the Perfect Five ETF portfolio I’m replacing my India ETF with this China ETF.)
I’m selling Danaher (DHR) and RTX (RTX) out of my Jubak Picks and Dividend portfolios, respectively, in an attempt to get ahead of some of the likely fallout from policy moves by the Trump Administration. And in order to sit out as much of current market volatility as is possible.
Today’s video is Retail Stocks and Recession Fears. In the past week we’ve seen a cascade of negative news from the retail sector. Macy’s announced projected comparable store sales would be “down slightly” for 2025, and Target expected flat comparable store sales for 2025. Last week, Target’s stock was down 7.4% and Best Buy fell 11.5%. I own Costco and Wal-Mart, (the best retail stocks at the moment) but I will be selling them this week. Costco, which I bought in 2022, is up 69% since I purchased it. I’ll be taking my profits and eliminating my exposure to the sector, which is a good place to be while tariffs and a volatile economy threaten retail stocks.
On January 22, 2025, my position in American Airlines (AAL) was up 46% from my October 22, 2024 buy-in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. As of the close on March 12, however, the stock is down 34% for 2025. And my portfolio position is down 16%. I don’t see any sign of a recovery in airline sector growth or revenue wth the economy clearly slowing. In fact all the major U.S. carriers have recently cut guidance for 2025. So on March 13, I will be selling American Airlines out o my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
With fears of an economic slowdown punishing the market today, I think it’s more than time to sell my Jubak Picks positions in Walmart (WMT) and Costco Wholesale (Cost) even though they are the two best companies in the retail sector. As of noon New York time today Walmart is down another 3.57% and Costco has dropped 2.64%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 is lower by 2.21% and the NASDAQ Composite is off 3.55%.
The reason to own shares of Las VEGAS sANDS (LVS0 is the strength of its position in the gaming market in Macao, and developments that look to add faster revenue growth in that market in the relative near future. Morningstar calculates that the stock is currently trading at about 20% below fair value.
The reason to sell Las Vegas Sands is that the trade war between China and the United States is likely to get worse before it gets better. And Las Vegas Sands’ operations in Macao are totally exposed to changes in policy and regulations from the Chinese government.
I don’t see any way the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and the now almost certain global trade war will mean anything good for BYD (BYDDF) the leading global maker of electric and hybrid cars And apparently the stock market agreed. Today’ March 3, shares of BYD dropped 11.05% in New York trading as President Donald Trump confirmed that higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China would go into effect tomorrow March 4. So I will be selling shares of BYD out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow. March 4. The position was up 54% since I initiated it on December 28, 2023.
I’m selling Salesforce (CRM) out of my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio tomorrow, March 4. The position was up 22% as of the close on March 3 from my buy on June 22, 2024.I added the stock back in June because I think companies with existing product platform that can add AI to bring value to their customers is the next stage in monetizing AI. I still think that’s true but the trend is taking a bit longer to play out than a market increasingly impatient with AI profits is willing to pay up for.If we get the sell off that certainly now looks possible, I’d be more than happy to rebuy.
Last night, in after hours trading, shares of Nvidia (NVDA), which had closed up 3.67% in the regular session, traded down a twitch, slipping by 0.04%. Today, Thursday, February 27, the shares started off in decent shape but then sold off all afternoon, closing down 8.48%. What was so disappointing about Nvidia’s results? And what should you do about this drop?
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation of copper imports in what is a first step toward potential tariffs on the metal. The move launches a process that Trump previously used to put tariffs on steel and aluminium, opening a new front in his trade war. We’re at the early stages in this effort but I think a copper tariff play is a reasonable buy right now–especially since coopper demand and copper prices are forecast to climb tariffs or no tariffs. The biggest winner would be Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest producer of copper in the United States. I’ll adding shares of Freeport my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, Thursday, February 27.
