On Monday, March 31, I will sell the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index BullishFund ETF (UUP) out of the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio and replace it with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY). I will leave the portfolio weighting at 25%. The yen ETF is up 5.32% in the last three months as of the close on March 28. It charges a 0.40% expense ratio.
Just because we’ve seen this page from the play book before and just because I’m skeptical about the long-term effects of this policy doesn’t mean I don’t want to own the China rally now. On Monday March 24, I’m adding the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my Perfect Five ETF Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios. (In the Perfect Five ETF portfolio I’m replacing my India ETF with this China ETF.)
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
Last week I sold my commodities ETF, the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.
Today I’m replacing it with the Invesco DB U.S.Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), UP 0.82% in 2025 as of January 14, 2025. The ETF gained 13.48% in 2024.
Apple (AAPL) sold 5% fewer iPhones globally and lost ground to Chinese rivals in the last quarter of 2024.
The iPhone slipped a percentage point to a 18% worldwide market share in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research data. rival Samsung Electronics also gave up share to Android smart phone makers from China, led by Xiaomi and Vivo. For the full year, Apple saw a 2% decline in sales, according to Counterpoint Research. In 2024 the global smart phone market grew by 4%.
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.
I think you want to own gold–through something like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) right now to profit from decreasing interest rates at most of the world’s central banks, from global macro uncertainty, from the possibility of domestic violence in the United States around the election, and from what sure looks like a train wreck in U.S. fiscal policy.
In the short term. Say six to nine months–maybe even a year–from now. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is up 24.84% for 2024 as of the September 16 close. In that same time period I think shares of gold mining companies are likely to lag the gains in gold. Shares of Barrack Gold (GOLD), the world’s second largest gold producer, are up just 15.09% in 2024.
Gold hit a new all-time high today of $2554 an ounce on the Comex for December delivery. Gold’s 20% or so gain in 2024 to date (as of August 26) is a result of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases plus anticipation that the Federal Reserve was about to cut interest rates. Now that Fed chair Jerome Powell has just about promised a cut at the Fed’s September 18 meeting it looks like gold will climb further in 2024 on the fundamentals. Bullish Wall Street targets say $2700 to $3,000 by the end of 2024. That’s a decent reason to hold gold. But the very scary geopolitical landscape over the next six months makes me anxious to add more gold even at the record nominal high for the metal.
I’m trying to walk a fine line here. I don’t want to eliminate my exposure to the U.S. stock market, the world’s best performer recently, but I would like to take some profits and reduce my exposure to the highest priced stocks in the U.S. market.Switching from the iShares S&P 500 Core ETF (IVV) to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF will have that effect.
