Earnings, earnings, earnings. From members of the Magnificent 7: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL). in the consumer sector from consumer stocks Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald’s (MCD), Mastercard (MA).From drug companies Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK). And from Big Oil Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL), and BP (BP). Here’s what I’d watch for.
I expect technology sector weakness to continue with earnings worries still unanswered. What could put an end to selling in tech stocks? The NASDAQ 100 is down almost 4% in the last week. Certainly earnings news that showed earnings growth at the companies in this sector robust enough to justify paying a premium for these shares would be a big help Unfortunately, the coming week isn’t going to bring enough earnings good news among tech shares to make this case. Among big tech stocks only Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) are scheduled to report.
Today’s Quick Pick is Cloud Service Infrastructure Stocks. Normally I’ll choose a specific individual stock for Quick Picks but in this case, I thought I should highlight the entire sector. It’s impossible to overstate the importance of AI technology’s effect on the economy as a whole but it’s also important to look at the individual companies and sectors that benefit from the demand this technology brings to the market. AI has created a revival of growth in the cloud service infrastructure sector, as demand for more processing on databases to run AI programming continues to increase. The sector has seen a revenue growth of about 21% year over year in the first quarter of 2024. The sector is dominated by three companies with Amazon (AMZN) holding the largest share at 31%, and Microsoft (MSFT) with 24% and Alphabet (Google) (GOOG) with 11.5%. This is a $300 billion market, and those three companies have about 66% of it. Smaller players like Alibaba (BABA) and Oracle (ORCL) have A LOT smaller shares at 4% and 3%. However, even that 3% of the market puts Oracle’s cloud revenue at $5.1 billion in the most recent quarter. Revenue in this sector is likely to continue to grow and it looks like good news for all of these companies that set the tone for the market. This is yet another way to get in on the AI boom.
Hedge funds are unwinding some of their overweight positions in technology stocks after their concentration in the sector reached record levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Net selling in tech, media and telecom stocks last week was the most since July, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note today. Information Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) were the most net sold sectors, Goldman said. And, among subsectors, sales of software stocks, chips and chip equipment and interactive media and services “were by far the most net sold.” The outweighed buying in IT services and media.”
On Monday Nvidia (NVDA) hit an all-time high. For 2023 through November 17, Nvidia and the other 6 stocks in the Magnificent Seven–Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA)–have gained more than 70%. The other 493 stocks in the Standard & Poor’ 500 are up 6% for that same period.
I’m trying to decide if we’re watching a legitimate rally or a classic bear trap. If this rally is real, and likely to run for a while, investors should be putting cash to work even at market highs. If it’s a bear trap-you know one of those upward moves designed to pull in cash from the sidelines just before green turns to red in the market, then you ought to be using this moment as a selling opportunity, taking profits, and building cash for better barging down the road. A new survey by Goldman Sachs shows concentration in big tech stocks is at a record high. What does that mean?
Investors see a ton of third-quarter earnings reports this coming week with news from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet quite capable of moving the entire market. We’ll also get more consumer company (Coca-Cola and Kimberly-Clark for example) reports to show whether last week’s higher revenue but lower volume pattern continues. And Wall Street is expecting negative new from oil companies ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) when they both report on Friday.
Now that Fed day is done and behind us, we return to our regularly scheduled programming. Back on September 15, I posted “A tough day for tech–Part 1” after news on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reporting that the company was slowing orders with suppliers of chip making equipment because of sluggish demand for chips from its customers. Now onto Part 2 of bad news for tech stocks.
Not all price increases are equally sticky.
Some jumps in cost are likely to get countered quickly because the goods or services in question exist in highly competitive marketplaces. And competitors are likely to cut prices to gain market share as soon as that’s feasible.
Other prices are sticky and unlikely to get rolled back quickly if at all. Much of this stickiness results from markets that act as oligopolies where companies don’t compete on price but instead follow the lead of their competitors in pricing higher and higher. The stickiness of inflation matters a great deal right now because it’s a big factor for the Federal Reserve in figuring out how many interest rate increases will be necessary to tame inflation. The stickier inflation is the higher the Fed will have to raise interest rates. From this perspective, the recent round of price increases from package shipping companies–from pretty much all of them–is bad news indeed for the Fed and inflation.
Earnings. Earnings. And more earnings. From the big bellwether technology stocks: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet. Wall Street has already slashed earnings forecast for these stocks so there’s a good chance these companies will report earnings that surpass expectations even if only by a few pennies. By and large, though, these reports will show either an absolute drop from the September quarter of 2021 or, at best, a slowing of revenue and earnings growth. Key to the market’s reaction will be what these companies say about expectations for the next quarter or two. Will they emphasize what are already clear slowdowns in PC and smartphone sales? Will they speak to the elephant in the room–the U.S/China trade war? Will they say that a strong dollar plus inflation is cutting into sales outside the United States and U.S. sales to domestic customers who are showing signs of “price fatigue”?
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was on track for a decent day–the index was up 0.79% at 12:43 p.m. New York time–and then Bloomberg broke a story, picked up everywhere, reporting that Apple (AAPL) intended to slow hiring and reduce spending growth next year. The S&P 500 finished the day down 0.84% and Apple shares closed down 2.06%.
