Pick #8 Qualcomm in my “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally” Special Report
Today I added Qualcomm as Pick #8 for my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for an old rally.” The stock is already a member of my Volatility Portfolio. Here’s what I wrote
Volatility
Albemarle, lithium stocks jump on buy-out speculation
Shares of lithium market leader Albemarle (ALB) rose 8.25% on Friday to close at $102.O9 on speculation in Australia that mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) will pursue a major lithium deal with Albemarle cited as a possible target. Shares of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM), Lithium Americas (LAC) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) also jumped, +10%, +7.1% and +3.1%, respectively. The speculation makes sense to me.
Tesla misses on quarterly deliveries–again
Tesla (TSLA) delivered 462,890 vehicles in the three months to 30 September. That was up 6.4% from the preceding quarter. But the delivery total missed Wall Street expectations for it to deliver 469,828 vehicles. That left the company facing the daunting task of delivering a record 516,344 vehicles in the fourth quarter in order to match its 2023 delivery figure of 1.81 million vehicles. A shortfall would result in Tesla recording its first ever annual drop in deliveries.
Special Report: “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally”–first 8 picks
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had a banner first half of 2024 with the index climbing more than 17% as of June 30. But two-thirds of that gain is attributable to just six stocks: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL.).Track the performance of equal-weighted version of the S&P 500–rather than the commonly tracked index where the contribution of any stock to the index is weighted by market cap–and the index was up just 3.9% in the first half of 2024. For the second half of 2024 and looking ahead to 2024, I’m not so much worried about the fundamentals of this extraordinary rally as I am by a failure of market imagination Everybody owns the same 6 stocks. Hey, I get the excitement around these stocks and the boom in Artificial Intelligence. I share it. Which is why I own shares of Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet in my online portfolios. But there are 494 other stocks in the S&P 500. And 2000 stocks in the small-cap Russell 2000.(Up 9% in the first half of 2024.)After a rally that has recorded 30 new record highs for the S&P 500 just the first half of n 2024, some of that other 494–or 2000–are actually better stock buys, and likely to out perform the 6 stocks everybody owns from their current record high prices. But which ones? That’s what my Special Report: “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally” is all about.
Think about gold and gold miners as two different asset classes right now
I think you want to own gold–through something like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) right now to profit from decreasing interest rates at most of the world’s central banks, from global macro uncertainty, from the possibility of domestic violence in the United States around the election, and from what sure looks like a train wreck in U.S. fiscal policy.
In the short term. Say six to nine months–maybe even a year–from now. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is up 24.84% for 2024 as of the September 16 close. In that same time period I think shares of gold mining companies are likely to lag the gains in gold. Shares of Barrack Gold (GOLD), the world’s second largest gold producer, are up just 15.09% in 2024.
So what happened to the big market crash?
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again from $128.83 on August 28 to $102.83 on September 6. But the shares are up again–15.83% last week–to $116.78 This canary seems to be sending a rather more complicated message than “Look I’m dead! See my feet in the air?” What’s the message, though?
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
The Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate at the Wednesday, September 8, meting off its Open Market Committee. It will be the first in a series of cuts that is likely to include 3 cuts in 2024 (at the September, November and December Fed meetings. The odds of a rate cut are a solid 100%. But there is high drama about the size of the initial cut to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate, now at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
The argument for adding more gold even now
Gold hit a new all-time high today of $2554 an ounce on the Comex for December delivery. Gold’s 20% or so gain in 2024 to date (as of August 26) is a result of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases plus anticipation that the Federal Reserve was about to cut interest rates. Now that Fed chair Jerome Powell has just about promised a cut at the Fed’s September 18 meeting it looks like gold will climb further in 2024 on the fundamentals. Bullish Wall Street targets say $2700 to $3,000 by the end of 2024. That’s a decent reason to hold gold. But the very scary geopolitical landscape over the next six months makes me anxious to add more gold even at the record nominal high for the metal.
Another day of small-cap outperformance–here’s the best ETF for this trend
The small-cap Russell 2000 index gained 1.90% yesterday, July 15. That beat the 0.28% gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500. And the 0.53% gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And a 0.27% gain for the NASDAQ 100 index.And today, as of noon, New York time, the Russell 2000 is up another 2.25% versus a gain of just 0.30% for the S&P 500 and 1.21 for the Dow Industrials.The NASDAQ 100 is off o.20% All his continues the outperformance trend of last week that I wrote about in yesterday’s Saturday Night Quarterback post.
BYD sells a record number of EVs in the second quarter as EU tariffs loom
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Moderna finally proves it has a post-Covid vaccine life
Can you say rollercoaster? In 2022, the biotech company generated sales of nearly $18.9 billion, all of it from sales of its Covid-19 vaccine but it expects revenue of only $4 billion this year. On February 14, 2023, shares sold for $175.62. On $86.04 on February 14, 2024 they traded at $86.04. Today, June 11, they closed at 148.39. I added them to my Volatility Portfolio at $157.10 on April 14,2023. That position was still down 5.54% as of the close on June 11. But I think the rally is still in its early stages. Why the turnaround now?
Special Report: 7 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio While You Still Reap Market Gains: Step #5 Bet on a very hot summer
I think that rather than trying to hedge market or sector direction in the 2024 market, I’m going to look for plays on the long side that will gain even if the market goes nowhere or tumbles, In other words, in financial jargon, I’m going to look for sectors and stocks that are uncorrelated with market direction rather than looking for sectors and stocks that are anti-correlated (where my gains depend on a downturn in the market.) That’s the logic with Step #5 today. Go long natural gas ahead of what is shaping up as a really, really hot summer.
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