Drill baby, drill pledge sends oil prices down today
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
EUM
Jobs surprise–economy delivers stronger than expected performance in December
In December U.S. economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. For 2024 as a whole, the economy added 2.2 million jobs—-below the 3 million increase in 2023 but above the 2 million created in 2019. The data almost certainly assured that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at its January 29 meeting. As of 11 a.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 5 basis points to 4.74%.
China’s deflation problem got worse in December
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
Fed’s December minutes another nail in the coffin for early interest rate cuts
In minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 17-18 meeting released on Wednesday, January 8, Federal Reserve officials clearly decided to move more slowly on cutting interest rates in the quarters ahead. “Participants indicated that the committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee showed. “Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.” Please note the reference to “quarters” and not “months.”
More bad news for stocks from the bond market today
The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.
Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 2 points to 54.1 last month. That show of strength in the economy–readings above 50 indicate expansion–was enough to push stocks lower as the markets began to price in a delay in the next interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until July The measure of prices paid for materials and services rose more than 6 points to 64.4, suggesting that the drop in the inflation rate in the service sector–about 70% of the U.S. economy–might be over.
Special Report: Your 10 Best Moves for the Rest of 2023, Part 2–10 of 10 Moves (revised on 10/22)
So what do you do with your portfolio for the rest of 2023? And what’s your best strategy to be prepared for 2024? In Part 1 of this Special Report I laid out the 10 developments that I thought would drive the financial markets for the rest of 223 and into 2024. Today, in Part 2, I’m going to give you the first 2 of 10 moves to take–with as much detail and as many specifics as possible–that you should be making now to position your portfolio for the uncertainties of the last quarter of 2023.
China stocks up on better than expected manufacturing news, anticipation of People’s Congress–adding China to ETF portfolio today
China’s manufacturing activity recorded its highest monthly improvement in more than a decade in February, while services also showed stronger-than-expected performance. Home sales rose for the first time in 20 months. Which has helped push Chinese stocks higher–along with the belief that the annual People’s Congress meeting that begins on Sunday will produce new stimulus measures from the central government.
Selling FXI China ETF out of Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio; replacing with EUM short emerging markets ETF
I’m making a switch today (well, actually tomorrow) in the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio Out goes the iShares Large Cap China ETF (FXI). In comes the ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). My weighting remains the same at 15% of the five-ETF portfolio.
Trend turns against emerging markets–but it’s too late for my Puts: Selling my Put Options on EWZ,EWW and buying short emerging markets ETF
I think the trend has finally turned against emerging market stocks. All it took was the threat of a debt default by Russia. That shift is too late for the Brazil and Mexico Put Options I bought on January 24, which expire on Mach 18. But with a Russian debt default looming I’m replacing those Puts with an ETF that shorts the major emerging markets index.
Selling emerging markets short ETF EUM out of my Volatility Portfolio
I don't know whether you've been able to hear it over all the other market noise--All the shouting on Brexit, for example--but there is a distinct and increasingly loud call from Wall Street that 2020 is the year to get back into emerging market assets. I don't happen...
Step #3 Adding more risk hedges in my Special Report on getting ready for the next Big One
As I wrote in my August 26 post "Risk and uncertainty soared on Friday--and not for the reasons you might first think" I think that Friday's retaliatory tariffs from China and then the Trump administration's retaliation to the retaliation--plus rhetoric from President...Jim’s Stock Alerts
Download Jim’s eBook for Free
