Drill baby, drill pledge sends oil prices down today
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
NJDCY
Jobs surprise–economy delivers stronger than expected performance in December
In December U.S. economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. For 2024 as a whole, the economy added 2.2 million jobs—-below the 3 million increase in 2023 but above the 2 million created in 2019. The data almost certainly assured that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at its January 29 meeting. As of 11 a.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 5 basis points to 4.74%.
China’s deflation problem got worse in December
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
Fed’s December minutes another nail in the coffin for early interest rate cuts
In minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 17-18 meeting released on Wednesday, January 8, Federal Reserve officials clearly decided to move more slowly on cutting interest rates in the quarters ahead. “Participants indicated that the committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee showed. “Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.” Please note the reference to “quarters” and not “months.”
More bad news for stocks from the bond market today
The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.
Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 2 points to 54.1 last month. That show of strength in the economy–readings above 50 indicate expansion–was enough to push stocks lower as the markets began to price in a delay in the next interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until July The measure of prices paid for materials and services rose more than 6 points to 64.4, suggesting that the drop in the inflation rate in the service sector–about 70% of the U.S. economy–might be over.
Special Report: Buy on the Dip Strategy #3 (of 4) and four more picks (Nos. 8, 9, 10 and 11)
When I started Special Report for how to Buy on the Dip, What to Buy on the Dip and When to Buy on the Dip I was only looking to have three strategies (and 10 picks). The more I look at the current market, the more complex it seems with more moving parts that could generate an Oh, No! moment for this stock or that stock. Which is why I’ve added a fourth strategy, one I’m calling “The China bomb” and four more picks to my Buy on the Dip Special Report.
Special Report: 4 Strategies and 14 Best Buy on the Dip Stocks–Complete 4 strategies and 14 picks
Yes, we want to buy on the dip. Whenever we get a significant dip. (And significant to me is 5% or more in the major indexes–and 10% or more in specific sectors.) But, we need new strategies for buying on the dip that take into account the market’s valuation problem, the central bank tightening that looks to be in the cards, and the real possibility of a dip in growth below forecasts in 2022. I’ve got fouir strategies to suggest for buying in this market on these dips. And 14 picks to use to execute those strategies.
Nidec tacks on 7.69% gain today on updated annual forecast and new buyback plan
Nidec (NJDCY) shares gained another 7.69% today, after the maker of electric motors for hard drives, robots, and electric vehicles, raised its annual outlook for the fiscal year that ends on March 31. The new outlook forecasts operating income of 155 billion yen ($1.5 billion) versus the older forecast of 140 billion yen. The company authorized share buybacks of up to 50 billion yen, or about 0.7% of the company’s stock.
Special Report: Second three picks (#4-#6) for my new Millennial Portfolio (for anyone who has more time than money)
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Nidec looks to expand its European market share in EV motors with new plant in Siberia
Can't say Nidec (NJDCY) isn't ambitious when it comes to expanding its share of the market for motors for electric vehicles in Europe, which has become along with China one of the world's top markets for electric vehicles. The Japanese company, based in Kyoto, will...
Autoliv beats on prospects for global auto recovery–but I think you’ve got better stocks to play this trend
Autoliv (ALV) reported third quarter earnings per share of either $1.48 (non-GAAP) or $1.12 (GAAP). (GAAP is generally accepted accounting principles.) That consensus was $1.09 a share on Wall Street. Revenue of $2.04 billion was in line with expectations and up 0.5%...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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