Z-SYMBOLS
May 20, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PANW, Top 50 Stocks |
I’m actually surprised that shares of cyber-security company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose only 10.7% in after-hours trading after the company reported adjusted fiscal third quarter earnings of $1.79 a share. That was ahead of the adjusted earnings of $1.68 a share expected by analysts and it was up from $1.38 a share in the fiscal third quarter of 2021. Revenue of $1.39 billion, up from $1.07 billion a year ago, was ahead of analyst projections of $1.38 billion. Billings rose to $1.8 billion from $1.27 billion in 2021. But the big news, the news that powered the after-hours gains, came when executives at Palo Alto raised their full-year outlook for the third time in as many quarters
May 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, DBA, JJA, Jubak Picks |
Barclays has suspended sales of 30 ETNs including the iPath Series B Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex ETN. That has increased the volatility of the ETN and so I’m selling it out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio and replacing it with the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF.
May 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, JJA, Jubak Picks |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “Quick Pick Invesco Agriculture ETF” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF. If you follow me my JubakPicks.com and JubakAm.com sites, you’ll know I’ve been looking for good vehicles to ride the increases in commodity prices due to inflation and the war in Ukraine. I’m switching in this ETF to replace commodity ETNs managed by Barclays currently in my portfolio because of some really bone-head mistakes by Barclays that have increased volatility in an already volatile asset. I don’t need more volatility, thanks!
May 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, USB |
Back on April 11 when I sold Wells Fargo (WFC) and the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) out of portfolios to reduce my exposure to a slowing economy caused by the Federal Reserve interest rate increases, I kept my position in U.S. Bancorp (USB) because I wanted to collect the dividend due to be paid out on April 15 (and because I thought super-regional U.S. Bancorp, as one of the best managed banks in the country, was less exposed to the downward trend in the sector.) Well, as of May 19, I’ve certainly collected my quarterly dividend (the stock current yields 3.75%) and the downward trend in financial stocks has picked up speed with the Fed announcing (well, as close to “announcing” as the Fed ever does) interest rate increases for the June, July and September meetings of the central bank, so I’ll be selling U.S. Bancorp out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow May 20.
May 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, KO, PEP, Top 50 Stocks |
Ok, the bad news on profit margins from Target (TGT) was a big deal. No argument. When you’re operating margin falls to 5.37% when Wall Street was projecting 9.5%, it’s a big deal. And after yesterday’s earnings miss from Walmart (WMT), it’s reasonable to extrapolate and say the entire economy and stock market has a cost, inflation, and margin problem. But that doesn’t mean that every company has the same degree of problem. And it certainly doesn’t justify selling everything–and selling to the tune of big losses–shares of every company that sells stuff to consumers. And tomorrow, or the next day, I expect a little more analysis and discrimination in the market. Some of the stocks hit hardest today should rebound handily on that rethink. I’d put PepsiCo (PEP) and Coca-Cola (KO) at the head of that group.
May 18, 2022 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, WMT |
As of 3:30 p.m. Wednesday May 18 shares of Target (TGT) were down 25% for the day after the company reported a big earnings miss for the first quarter. Let’s be clear. The sales picture at Target was very positive for the quarter. Same store sales were up 3.3% in the quarter. That was about three times higher than Wall Street analysts had expected. Revenue was up 4%. Here again Target’s $25.2 billion in revenue beat expectations for $24.3 billion in revenue. But earnings were terrible at $2.19 a share versus forecasts for $3.05 a share.
May 17, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
Today, Tuesday May 17, China’s top economic official, Vice Premier Liu He, said that the government will support the development of digital economy companies and their public stock listings. The comments delivered after a symposium with the CEOs of some of the country’s largest private technology companies came just a day after the National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial output fell 2.9% in April from April 2021, and that retail sales contracted 11.1%. Financial markets in China and the United States interpreted the remarks as a public show of support for China’s Internet companies
May 17, 2022 | ALB, CHPT, Daily JAM, EVGO, Millennial, TSLA, Volatility |
New registrations for electric vehicles jumped 60% in the first quarter of 2022 from the first quarter of 2021. according to Experian Automotive. Electric vehicles made up an all-time record 4.6% of the total market. The news was even more positive given that overall new vehicle registrations were down 18% in the quarter from the first quarter of 2021.
May 17, 2022 | ALB, Daily JAM, DAL, DE, DIS, FQVLF, Long Term, MRVL, NVDA, PFE, SCCO, USB, Volatility |
In my weekend Saturday Night Quarterback I said that this week would, probably, answer the question of whether Friday’s big bounce was just a bounce, the start of a buy on the dip rally, or even a bear market rally with a bit of staying power. Two days into the week I think the market action is moving in favor of a bear market rally, one of those often quite powerful upside moves that punctuate extended bear markets.
May 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, LICY, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Another Battery Investment” went up today. This week I’m looking at investments by fossil-fuel companies, such as Koch Industries, in battery technology stocks. Koch’s venture arm has made several investments–committing significant amounts of cash–in battery companies. Koch Industries isn’t alone. Big commodity trader Glencore seems to be following the same course. That company recently committed $200 million toLi-Cycle (LICY), a stock I’ve covered before and which has been pounded along with other battery and alternative energy stocks. The question for individual investors is whether they have as long a time horizon–and as big a tolerance for risk–as these big energy and commodities players.
May 15, 2022 | AES, CRWD, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, GNRC, Jubak Picks, OKTA, WCC |
I don’t know if Friday’s bounce will continue into the new week. I think the summer season is likely to be positive for revenue at many companies–travel, airlines, Las Vegas–but I don’t like the longer term fundamentals in the economy. Inflation is going to be harder to reduce than Federal Reserve rhetoric and Wall Street sentiment now credit. And there is a good chance of a recession in 2023. But I’m not looking for some kind of crash from here–at least not before a recession tests the credit markets in 2023. We’re on the edge of a bear–the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 18.1% from its all time high as of the close on Thursday–or in a bear–for the technology stocks of the NASDAQ. The typical pattern from here is for a continued decline to be punctuated by sharp rallies and bounces (like Friday) until we put in the ultimate bottom (certainly after a few more Federal Reserve interest rate increases.)
We’re not there yet. This downward trend in equity markets is likely to continue for a while in my opinion. So what am I trying to accomplish with these sells?
May 14, 2022 | ABBV, BMY, Daily JAM, MRK, PFE |
I can’t find Big Pharma stock in the green during Friday’s big rally. Which makes me question the staying power of Friday’s move. If the day’s gains were the result of a market bottom, wouldn’t everything be up? Even the very defensive drug stocks? Not as much as the tech losers of 2022 but still if the market had bottomed I’d expect these stocks to be in the green too. More evidence, I think, for my thesis that Friday was the result of technical trading in an over-sold market.
