China puts Shanghai into Omicron lockdown
The city of 25 million and China’s financial hub began a phased lockdown today. A wave of Omicron infections hit a record of 3,450 daily asymptomatic cases on Sunday. That’s nearly 70% of China’s total.
Z-SYMBOLS
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
On Friday, the Iranian government said an agreement to revise the nuclear deal with Iran may happen soon. All the stood in way, according to the Iranians was the U.S. decision designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organizations. Surely, with Europe teetering on the edge of an energy emergency, the U.A would bite the bullet and agree to change the status of the Islamic Revolutionary Guide. But while Iranians seemed to say “No big deal” a re-rating of the Islamic Revolutionary Guide remained a deal breaker for the United States.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Agricultural Commodity ETN JJA
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fifteenth YouTube video “Quick Pick Agricultural Commodity ETN JJA” went up today. This week’s Quick Pick is an ETN that tracks agricultural commodities. What I’m looking for is a chance to buy commodities, particularly wheat and corn, in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war. Don’t forget that these are two of the biggest regions for producing and shipping wheat and corn. And right now nothing in grain silos in Ukraine can get out across the Black Sea. This ETN has a decent expense ratio compared to competitors and is focused on food–no oil or natural gas. I’m adding it to my portfolios in complement to the DJP ETN, which does include those energy commodities.
My first “Recession Preparation” sell: Lululemon
Projections schedule a potential Recession for the second half of 2022 or 2023. Fears of that impending trend will begin to be felt in stock prices before that. The sector most likely to feel the effects of any Recession–and thus the sector most likely to first feel the anticipation of that Recession on stock prices–is what Standard & Poor’s calls Consumer Discretionary” stocks. (The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) tracks these stocks for the S&P 500 index.) In my YouTube video yesterday, I flagged three stocks in this sector to sell ahead of any potential Recession–Netflix (NFLX), Starbucks (SBUX), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Of these I said I would sell Lululemon first
U.S. and Europe plan to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas–somehow
The United States and Europe have reached an agreement to expand U.S. supplies of natural gas to Europe in an effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas.
Details are bit vague. And wishful thinking is a big ingredient. The basis problem is that Russia supplies Europe with 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year via pipelines. U.S. and other sources can’t match increase production to that level and the infrastructure to get the gas to Europe simply doesn’t exist. Yet the goal has now been put on paper and the agreement promises that Europe will get at least 15 billion cubic meters of additional LNG supplies by the end of the year. Even though it is not clear where the natural gas welcome from or how ti will be delivered.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Three Recession Stock Sells
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fourteenth YouTube video “Three Recession Sells” went up today.This week’s video takes a look at what I’m calling consumer discretionary companies and recommends that this kind of company should be your first sell as we head toward a Recession. These are places where consumers looking to save money in future economic downturn might cut back spending. I think Starbucks (SBUX), Lululemon (LULU), and Netflix (NFLX) are all stocks to avoid through the end of the year as we see a recession on the horizon. More coverage of this on my sites as well including 10 stocks to own during a Recession on my subscription JubakAM.com site.
Oil is up, stocks (outside energy) are down–how long will this anti-correlation last?
Oil rallied again today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate up 4.79% on the day to $114.79 a barrel and international benchmark Brent up 5.12% to $121.39 a barrel. So, natural, oil and gas equities stocks are up today. And the broader market is down. What else isn’t new?
Bad news from China adds to global food crunch–add to positions in the DJP Bloomberg Commodity ETN
How does the lyric go (as sung by Albert King)? “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I would have no luck at all.” Maybe that song should be the theme song for the global food market right now. This month China’s agriculture minister Tang Renjian told colleagues at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month: “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn. Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”
Australia ban on alumina shipments to Russia keeps aluminum rally hot
Australia has banned alumina shipments to Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is the source of 20% of the alumina used by Russia’s aluminum industry. Aluminum rose as much as 4.8% on the London Metal Exchange.The metal is now 25%for 2021. Shares of Alcoa (AA), which have been on a tear first on news of supply deficits and then on sanctions against Russian aluminum producers, gained 10.01% on Monday, March 21.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect a continuation of the “disagreement” between domestic Chinese and foreign investors about the risk and direction of China’s stock marketThe two groups see very different worlds when they look at Chinese stocks. China’s domestic investors see a market ready for a big rally from a severe bear market on support from the People’s Bank of China, stock market friendly changes in policy from China’s financial regulators, and promises of fiscal stimulus from the Beijing government. Foreign investors see a the dangers of a confrontation with the United States and the potential for economic sanctions on China
Norway’s Equinor gets adjusted permits to raise natural gas production
Norwegian oil and natural gas producer Equinor (EQNR) said Wednesday, March 16, that adjusted permits from the Norwegian government will allow higher natural gas production over summer from the North Sea Troll and Oseberg fields as well as the Heidrun fields in the Norwegian Sea. With European countries looking for alternatives to Russian natural gas Equinor can basically sell all the gas it can produce even at higher prices. Natural gas futures closed at $4.81 per million BTUs today in New York. That’s up from $3.80 on January 20. That’s a 26.6% increase. I added Equinor to my Volatility Portfolio back on January 21 as hedge against a Russian invasion of Ukraine and wide-reaching sanctions. That position is up 23.14% as of the close on March 18.
Beijing steps in and China stocks soar
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more.
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