September 19, 2024
What You Need to Know Today:
Even long-term China bulls are throwing in the towel on Chinese stocks
With Chinese stocks looking at an unprecedented fourth consecutive losing year, even some of Wall Street’s most conspicuous China bulls are throwing in the towel.
Over the past two weeks, long-standing China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management, Nomura Holdings, and JPMorgan Chase have all downgraded the country’s stocks. And there’s a growing consensus that China will fail to meet its economic growth target of around 5% this year. The money NOT flowing into China has made this a good year for stocks in India, Japan, and Taiwan.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect cash flows to favor a continued recovery rally. One thing that happens in financial markets when central banks get set for a major change in policy direction is that cash flows from re-positioning of speculative and trend-following strategies can drive big moves in market volatility. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Besides the unwinding of yen carry positions that led to selling of dollar-denominated assets, the two-week sell off that ended last week saw the biggest unwind in U.S. equities since the Covid-19 panic. And now this unwind looks to be over, Which means this cash will be going back to work in U.S. stocks. The action is taking place in trend-following quant funds.
Gain in consumer sentiment adds to soft-landing scenario
U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early August for the first time in five months as consumers raised expectations on their finances and on subsiding inflation. The University of Michigan sentiment index climbed to 67.8 from 66.4 in July, according to the preliminary August reading. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 66.9.
So much for those recession fears
What happened to all that selling? And the conviction that the U.S. economy ws headed for a recession? The Standard & Poor’s 500 finished Thursday, August 15, with another up day for a 6-day rally that has pushed the index up 6.6%.Treasury yields surged with the yield on the 2-year Treasury, the maturity most sensitive to shifts in sentiment about the direction of Federal Reserve interest rate policy, climbing back above 4%. The S&P 500 climbed 1.6% on the day. The Nasdaq 100 added 2.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained2.5%. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,”the VIX, dropped back to near 15, below its long-term average, and hugely below its August 5 close at 38.57. The proximate cause of the rebound rally? Three reports showing that the U.S.consumer is alive, well, and still buying stuff.
CPI inflation slips, track to September rate cut clear
Core CPI inflation rose at a 3.2% annual rate in July. That was the slowest rate of increase since early 2021.And that rate of increase was low enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for cutting interest rates at its September 18 meeting.
Could China be looking at a repeat of Japan’s no growth decades?
A plunge in new corporate borrowing in China combined with Chinese households preferring to repay debt rather than expand borrowing saw bank loans in China shrink last month for the first time since July 2005. That deepened China’s years-long battle with weak credit demand, as a property slump spurs caution on buying homes and expanding investment. This has raised fears that China’s first bank loan contraction in nearly two decades could send the world’s No. 2 economy toward a “balance sheet recession” similar to that in Japan decades ago.
Special Report: It’s a New World for Dividend Investors: Pick #10 ABBV
Bookkeeping. I added AbbVie (ABBV) as Pick #10 for My New World for Dividend Investing Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it. AbbVie (ABBV) has been a long-time member of the Dividend Portfolio with a gain of 213% since my January 29, 2020 pick. The question right now is Should it be a top dividend pick going forward? After all, the appreciation in the stock has dropped the dividend yield to 3.67%. (Add in a modest yield from buybacks and the total yield goes to 4.18%.) The most pressing question has been What will replace the $20 billion in annual revenue from the company’s blockbuster arthritis drug Humira (adalimumab) now that it faces competition from biosimilar generics? Now we’ve got some numbers to answer that question and to me they add up to AbbVie remaining a top dividend pick.
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Visa beats on earnings as worldwide payments volume climbs by 8%
Tuesday, April 23, after the market close Visa (V) reported adjusted net income of $2.51 a share. That ws 7 cent a share more than the consensus of estimates from Wall Street analysts. Earnings rose 7% year-over-year in the quarter. Revenue climbed 10% from a year prior to $8.8 billion, also exceeding Wall Street estimates
Lithium Americas–Buy on the plunge
I certainly understand the sell off in shares of development stage lithium producer Lithium Americas (LAC). Today, April 23, the stock closed at $4.68 a share, down another 1.47%. On April 16 the stock closed at $6.49 after hitting $7.34 on April 11. The culprit? The company closed a previously announced stock offer to 55 million shares at a price of $5 a share to raise $275 million.
You can see the problem, right? Stock is trading at $7.34 or $6.49 and then a big public offer dumps 55 million shares on the market at $5 a share. Ouch!! So I understand the price plunge–36.2% from April 11 to the close on April 23. And as someone who owns shares in his personal portfolio, I can’t say I’m a happy camper. But I will be being more in my personal account three days after this is posted.
Gold retreats from its record high–What to do Part 1
Gold futures for June delivery closed down 2.92% on the Comex today. The metal closed at $2343.40 an ounce. The drop came on a lessening of fears that the exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran would quickly lead to a wider Middle East war. And on growing sentiment that the Federal Reserve isn’t likely to cut interest rates soon. The drop in the gold contract for June delivery was the largest since February 3, 2023 when it fell 2.8%.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick ABT
Today’s Quick Pick is Abbott Laboratories (ABT). The medical device sector is very complicated with constant changes to technology and best practice therapeutics and it can be very hard to keep track of, but two things recently caught my eye about Abbott. The company is generally very conservative and rarely raises guidance, but it did exactly that in its first quarter earnings report. It wasn’t a huge raise but the company went from projecting earnings in a range of $3.20 a share to $3.40 a share to a range with a higher floor of $3.25 to $3.40 a share. The other announcement was a big boost in sales of its diabetes continuous glucose monitoring device, Freestyle Libre. Sales grew to $1.5 billion, up 22.4% year over year. Overall, at the company medical device sales grew 14% year over year, though their Covid test sales were down 18% year over year. I think this is a medical device company that is well-positioned for an aging population. The stock pays a 2.08% dividend. Morningstar says this stock trades at fair value with the shares down about 7.8% in the last month. I think this is a good chance to buy this well-managed, conservative company.
A big test of demand for Treasuries in this week’s huge auctions
It’s been a tough month for Treasuries with yields rising on a re-thinking of when the Federal Reserve might begin to cut interest rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.62% on Friday. That’s an increase in yield of 35 basis points in a month. (When yields climb, bond prices fall.) And this week the Treasury will auction a combined $183 billion of two-, five- and seven-year Treasury notes. Ans that’s ahead of the latest update on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
I’m sure you’ve noticed. The technology sector, which led the stock market rally in 2023 and in the early days of 2024, is in a slump. The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) tumbled 6.27% last week and is down 7.16% in the last month. For 2024 to date, as of the close on April 19, the sector is at break even with gain of 0.19%. Quite a turnabout for a sector that is still up 30% for the last 12 months. This week brings a raft of tech earnings that could turn the sector’s trend around. Or not.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Hot Button Moves Now Buy ASML
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy ASML Holding (ASML). ASML is the only global manufacturer of the most cutting-edge chip-making equipment, a technology called Extreme Ultra Violet Lithography (EUV). The equipment allows for a smaller chip, more transistors on the chip, and more power for less silicon. ASML’s earnings report on April 16 was disappointing, with fewer than expected orders, a situation that will likely continue into the next couple of quarters. This resulted in a big drop in earnings and the stock taking a big hit. But, this is the only game in town for this equipment, and anything chip that uses the new 2-nanometer, 3-nanometer, and 5-nanometer technologies will be made on ASML equipment. So orders will not stay down for long. I would use this weakness to buy ASML Holding. It’s not cheap, but it’s not likely not get much cheaper than this, and as geopolitical chip wars settle, orders for ASML will jump rebound. ASML Holding is a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portolio.
Special Report: It’s a New World for Dividend Investors: Pick #10 ABBV
Bookkeeping. I added AbbVie (ABBV) as Pick #10 for My New World for Dividend Investing Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it. AbbVie (ABBV) has been a long-time member of the Dividend Portfolio with a gain of 213% since my January 29, 2020 pick. The question right now is Should it be a top dividend pick going forward? After all, the appreciation in the stock has dropped the dividend yield to 3.67%. (Add in a modest yield from buybacks and the total yield goes to 4.18%.) The most pressing question has been What will replace the $20 billion in annual revenue from the company’s blockbuster arthritis drug Humira (adalimumab) now that it faces competition from biosimilar generics? Now we’ve got some numbers to answer that question and to me they add up to AbbVie remaining a top dividend pick.
Please Watch My New Youtube Video: Want to know when the Fed will cut rates? Look at the calendar
Today’s video is Want to know when the Fed will cut rates? Look at the calendar. The Fed only has so many meetings left for 2024 and even fewer if you only coun those with Dot Plot updates of the Fed’s economic projections. The Fed is on the verge of a major shift in policy and the U.S. central bank almost never makes a big policty shift at a meeting without an update of its economic projections.. Early in the year, people were looking for up to five cuts, now, sentiment has shifted to one or fewer. If we get a rate cut at all, when will it be? Look at which upcoming Fed meetings include Dot Plots. The Fed doesn’t like to surprise investors and if they make a drastic change, like a shift to rate cuts, you can bet they want to do it while they’re also discussing projections for 2024 and 2025. The.CME Fedwatch Tool currently odds for the next meeting, May 1, at a 98% chance of no cut and the June meeting is now up to an 84.8% chance of no cut. The June meeting WILL have a Dot Plot and, up until recently, the finanial markets believed that meeting that would deliver the news. Because the Fed generally likes to give in-depth information during a big policy shift, it’s unlikely that the rate cut will be in July, since no dot Plot economic pdate is scheduled for that meeting. The next real chance of a rate cut, I think, is September 18, which has a Dot Plot. (There is no August Fed meeting.) The market thinks there will be a cut in September, and CME Fedwatch has the odds of no cut at that meeting at just 32.7%. A second rate cut in 2024 would have to be at the December 18 meeting, the final 2024 meeting with a Dot Plot. (The Fed doesn’t meet in Ocrober and the November meeting does include a Dot Plot update.) Without the September cut, it’s very unlikely there will be two cuts in 2024. Unless inflation data changes a lot, I doubt we’ll have two rate cuts, but we can look for one in September or December at this point.
Is China’s economy about to slow down again?
China reported faster-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter–but… Although Gross Domestic Product climbed 5.3% in the quarter–a faster rate of growth than in the first quarter of 2023 and above economist estimates, most of the good news came from the first two months of the quarter. In March growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output fell short of forecasts. That doesn’t bode well for the rest of 2024.
Confusion on Tesla climbs ahead of April 23 earnings report
Can’t figure Tesla (TSLA) out? Welcome to the club. The stock was down another 5.59% today, April 15, and is now down 31% for 2024. Maybe investors will get some clarity on the company’s identity and strategy when it announced earnings on April 23. Wall Street analysts expect earnings of 36 cents a share against earnings of 73 cents a share in 2023. I think that strategic clarity is actually more important than quarterly earnings at this point for Tesla.
Apple’s smartphone market share slide continues
Apple has lost its spot as the world’s biggest mobile phone seller, IDC reported today, April 15. A steep drop in sales in China for Apple let South Korean rival Samsung retake the lead in global market share. Samsung had been the biggest seller of mobile phones for 12 years until the end of 2023, when sales of Apple’s iPhone models overtook it. Global smartphone shipments increased by 8% to 289.4m units during January-March, according to IDC. Samsung has a 20.8% market share. That beat Apple’s 17.3% share
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) asks, And now what in the Middle East and for global financial markets?
After Israel and its allies (with the help of some Arab states that don’t want to see a wider Middle East war and who aren’t thrilled with the growing power of Iran and its proxies) succeeded in shooting down almost all of the drones (170), ballistic missiles (120), and cruise missiles (30) launched by Iran against the country, will the two sides both declare victory and claim that honor is satisfied or will one or the other escalate the war with another round of attacks? As of early Monday trading in Asia, the oil and gold markets have reacted with concern but not panic. Gold, up 13% already this year to a record above $2,400 an ounce, moved higher but the gains were relatively modest. Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $2,361.92 an ounce as of 6:20 a.m.in Singapore. The global oil market opened to the upside but by less than 1%. And prices have been steady to slightly weaker since then.
JPMorgan Chase disappoints to start earnings season
All good things come to an end. After seven straight quarters of record levels of profits from net interest income, the spread between what earns by lending and what it pays depositors to raise funds, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported that net interest income slightly missed analyst estimates for the first quarter. The quarter the company reported today certainly wasn’t a disaster. The bank earned $23.1 billion in net interest income in the period, up 11% from the first quarter of 2023. But the end of the beat and raise guidance of the last year and a half plus an increase in costs were enough to lead to substantial selling today, April 12. The shares finished the day down 6.47% at $182.79. Analysts and investors were clearly hoping for more.
War fears driving oil and stocks now
West Texas Intermediate rose to its October 2023 highs, before pulling back, on fears that an Iranian retaliation for an Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate would lead to a wider war in the Middle East. International benchmark Brent crude surged as much as 2.7% to top $92 a barrel before retreating to close at $90.26 a barrel, up 0.58% on the day. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is now up 19% in 2024. Bloomberg reports that Western intelligence assessments are looking for an Iranian attack in the next 48 hours. No one wanted to hold U.S. equities ahead of the weekend.
Producer price index continues bond market freak out
So why was this so important today? Important enough to send the yield on the 10-year Treasury up another 3 basis points to 4.58%.The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6% in February and 0.4% in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1% for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3% for the 12 months ended April 2023..The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3% rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1%. Look at the last set of numbers.
CPI inflation bad news increases pressure on earnings to keep rally going
If, as the too hot April 10 CPI inflation argues, we’re not going to see a June 12 interest rate cut… And if investors are looking at two cuts in 2024 (at the most) instead of three… And if there’s a possibility that we won’t see the first rate cut until the November 7 Fed meeting… Then what will keep this rally from turning into a correction? Earnings look like they will have to do the job .Problem is that this quarter’s earnings look likely to disappoint. There are quarters with better earning growth forecast ahead. Will investors wait for them?
Fitch Ratings calls out China’s growing debt load–what worries me is that China isn’t alone
Fitch Ratings revised China’s outlook to negative from stable. The Big 3 rating company (along with Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Services) said the government is likely to pile on debt as it seeks to pull the economy out of a real estate-driven slowdown.The Fitch announcement matches a similar warning from Moody’s Investors Service in December. China’s public debt has risen rapidly over the past dozen years or so, as the government pumped money into the economy in order to prop up economic growth. To end a now years-long property slump, the government has already outlined new stimulus measures—like subsidies for households and businesses that want to upgrade appliances or machinery— and signaled that more will follow.Public debt was close to 80% of gross domestic product as of the middle of last year, roughly double the level of the mid-2010s, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Hot CPI inflation number takes June interest rate cut off the table
In March the Consumer Price Index inflation rate rose more than expected by economists for a third straight month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That looks to the market today, and to me, like it takes an initial interest rate cut off the table for the Fed’s June 12 meeting. The all-items inflation rate rose by 0.4% in March from February. The 12-month all-items inflation rate rose at a 3.5% rate in March. The core CPI, the inflation rate more important to the Federal Reserve, rose 0.4% month-over-month in March. And at a 3.8% annual rate.
Nvidia’s next earnings report shaping up as very, ahem, “interesting”
Nvidia (NVDA) doesn’t report earnings until May 22. But the report is already shaping up as critical for the stock. Analysts see the company reporting earnings of $5.13 a share for the quarter, up from just 88 cents a share in the same quarter of 2023.
But the short-term earnings numbers aren’t what’s most importance right now. Nvidia has roughly 90% share in the market for AI-accelator chips. That’s put a big target on the company’s back. No one expects Nvidia is maintain that 90% share–which is okay since the market is growing so fast. Last month, analysts at Bank of America said the market could reach anywhere between $250 billion and $500 billion over the next three to five years. That was a big jump from their earlier estimate of less than $250 billion. The question is How fast all the efforts to compete with Nvidia will eat into that market share.
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