June 22, 2023 | Daily JAM, GNRC, Short Term, Volatility |
I’ve got major questions about Generac’s (GNRC) long-term growth. The company, the dominant player in the market for residential backup electric generators (with about 4 times the market share–or about 75% of the market–of its nearest competitor) faces big questions, in my opinion, about its long-term strategy and its ability to grab significant revenue in the clean energy market where it faces competition from larger companies, more established in the market, such as SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH). But in the short run? Say, the next two or maybe three (at the outside) months, I say this is a stock that will ride summer storms and heat waves to gains. Especially, if as I project, the company delivers lackluster quarterly earnings when it reports on August 2, but gives very positive guidance for the next quarter or two
June 1, 2023 | AMAT, AMD, CVS, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, EMR, GOOG, ILMN, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
Artificial intelligence really is a paradigm-breaking, transformative technology. Right now, investors are so enthusiastic about the sector, especially the obvious leader Nvidia (NVDA), that we’re looking at a potential bubble that will collapse with much gnashing of teeth and I-told-you-so “wisdom” casting doubt on the reality of the entire endeavor. I think a bubble is indeed possible. Nvidia did trade at a trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 196 on May 31, after all. But I think you do want to own the sector now–because the breaking of the bubble, if it does break is, in my opinion, two quarters or more away. And you want to own the sector for the long run–say, 10 years or more–because it is such a game changer for so much of the economy. But what to own? I’ve put together a list of the 10 stocks that I think are the best way to participate in the AI gold rush.
May 30, 2023 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick is Short iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) COVID is back in China with a new peak of an estimated 65 million cases a week. It’s not as bad as the last peak which saw 35 million cases a day, but it’s enough that the economy will take a hit. And China’s reopening recovery was already looking a bit shaky. During the last wave of COVID, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) fell to $20.95. The ETF rose steadily from that low on optimism over China opening back up. The economy didn’t bounce back as quickly as expected and FXI has stayed in the $27-$28 range recently. My suggestion is to buy an August Put Option. That will leave enough time for the COVID wave to play out. The August 18 Put with a strike price of 27, trades at just $1.00 or $100 for a contract of 100 shares of the ETF. That price makes this an affordable volatility play on a macroeconomic trend, and I’ll be adding this to my Volatility Portfolio portfolio on my paid site, JubakAM.com, and selling this ETF out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.
May 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Nvidia (NVDA) shares were up 19.68% at 4:45 p.m. New York time today, May 24, after the company reported beating analyst estimates on earnings and revenue. The company also told analysts to expect second-quarter revenue way, way above pre-announcement projections. For the three-month period ending April 30, Nvidia earned $1.09 per share, excluding one-time items, as revenue came in at $7.19 billion. Analysts were looking for the company to report earnings of 92 cents a share and $6.28 billion in revenue.
May 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, KRE, Special Reports, Volatility |
JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) deal today, Monday, May 1, to acquire First Republic Bank (FRC) after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) regulators seized the bank certainly puts an end to the First Republic chapter of the banking crisis. But there are lots of chapters to go in this banking crisis. So my second short for this market is to buy Put Options on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
April 14, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
The VIX “fear index,” known more formally as the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), dropped again today with a retreat of 3.60% taking the index down to a close of 17.16. The VIX, which measures the price that investors and traders are willing to pay in the options market to hedge risk on the Standard & Poor’s 500 in the next month or so, hasn’t been this low in 2022. The prior low for the VIX this year was 17.87 on February 2. You have to go back to December 27, 2021, when the index stood at 17.22 to find a roughly comparable level. With all that lurking out there in the financial world, I find the VIX at 17.16 too good to pass up.
March 30, 2023 | ADBE, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
In Step #3 of my Special Report: 5 Moves for the Next 5 Months, on March 24 I added three Big Tech stocks–Microsoft (MSFT), Adobe (ADBE), and Nvidia (NVDA) to my Volatility Portfolio ahead of earnings season. My theory, explained in that post was that we were facing a tough earnings season for most stocks and that reliable earnings growth from Big Tech would make those stocks look like a safe haven in a period when the Standard & Poor’s 500 as a whole was projected to show a drop in earnings. (I also owned up to my mistake in selling Nvidia back on February 16. That was just wrong. More on why I was wrong and why I’ve changed my mind on that in a post tomorrow or so.)
March 30, 2023 | Daily JAM, SCHW, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick is Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) Put Options. Put options will become more valuable as the stock goes down in price. This has been a lousy year for Schwab with the stock currently down about 34% YTD. The reason for this is Schwab makes most of its money on the interest rate spread. Schwab stashes “excess” cash in customer accounts in sweep accounts that pay a very low rate of interest, and Schwab invests that cash in Treasuries, mortgage-backed assets, etc. at higher yields. This works when the overall rate of interest is low because customers have a relatively small incentive to actively move their cash to higher-yielding vehicles. When the Fed raises interest rates, however, some people who had formerly kept their money in these low-return accounts will move their cash to higher-yielding alternatives (often still within Schwab.) This reduces the interest spread that Schwab collects since the company now has to pay more in interest to retain those customers. In addition, Schwab invested that cash in long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets, leaving the company sitting on a lot of unrealized losses in its bond portfolios as bond prices fell as interest rates moved higher. I question whether or not Schwab will be able to meet analysts’ expectations and/or warn on future results when it announces earnings on April 17. I would suggest Put options before the announcement. I added the May 19 Put to my Volatility Portfolio yesterday. For more options plays, subscribe to JubakAM.com.
March 29, 2023 | VIX, Volatility |
Today March 29, the VIX dropped again, losing another 4.01% to 19.10. So I’ll be buying the June 21 Call Option with a strike price of 23 tomorrow. A contract for 100 shares closed at $305 today. This buy will go into my Volatility Portfolio.
March 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBE). I’m not suggesting buying this now: I’m suggesting you watch this and buy Put Options on this ETF when the time is right. The SPDR S&P ETF is approximately 80% regional banks. As you can imagine, it took a huge hit during the recent banking scare and would have been a great Put Option last week during the plunge in the sector. Options are a way to leverage the volatility of this market. The recent exit of my VIX Call Option resulted in a 100% gain in about a week. For KBE, I’d look at Put Options that climb in value as the price of the ETF sinks. At the time of recording, KBE was selling at about 37. I’m looking at the June 16 Put at a strike price o 38. At the moment, the Put is deeply underwater but I’ll continue to watch this rally to see when it’s worth it to jump in. At the moment, I suggest you watch this one: Don’t buy just yet but wait for the next shoe to fall in the banking crisis.
March 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped back near 18–the index was at 18.50 as of noon New York time on Monday, March 6–despite what looks like a month or two of potential volatility ahead. So, as of this morning, I’m buying Call Options on the VIX for May 17 with a strike price of 23 (at a cost of $197 a contract) and on the June 23 contract with a strike price of 23 (at a cost of $254 a contract) for my Volatility Portfolio.
February 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Today, Wednesday, February 8, Equinor (EQNR) reported a record $74.9 billion adjusted operating profit for 2022. That more than doubled the previous record. If you’re looking to add an energy stock to your portfolio ahead of a year that looks likely to be a good one for energy stocks, I’d suggest Equinor. I’ll be adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow with a target price of $40 a share.
