Z-SYMBOLS
February 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, EWY, Mid Term, Perfect Five-ETFs, Stock Alerts |
I try not to argue with cash flows. Especially when I’m making asset allocation decisions. And right now global cash is heading for India. A number of reasons. Portfolio managers looking for diversification need emerging markets exposure and India looks like the best bet. Going long India is, in effect going short China since much of the new India money is essentially old China money fleeing what looks like an economy set to struggle for a while. And there is an India fundamental story based on an economy headed for 7% growth. For all these reasons I’m added the Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN) to both my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio as rep
February 4, 2024 | Daily JAM, GWH, Long Term, Millennial, Special Reports, Stock Alerts |
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs Pick #3 ESS Tech (GWH). The stock of this maker of iron flow, utility scale, long-draw-down batteries ticks all the boxes for my Penny Stock Home Runs.
February 3, 2024 | ALB, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Special Reports, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
This one is very simple. When the price of lithium rebounds, high-quality low-cost lithium producers will see the revenue roll in. That’s why I’d got the world’s leading lithium-producer Albemarle (ALB) in my long-term 50 Stock Portfolio. But a smaller, high-quality, low-cost producer like Australia’s Pilbara Minerals will show gains even higher than Albemarle since the current price of $2.29 a share comes close to discounting the company’s survival.
February 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s video is Microsoft Shows Priced to Perfection Risks. This quarter, the company reported Tuesday, Azure, its cloud services flagship, grew revenue by 30% last year. While a 30% growth rate would be a great for many companies, Wall Street and analysts were disappointed in this news from Microsoft. This is the “priced to perfection” problem. Although the company beat earnings estimates, beat revenue estimates, and showed 30% growth in a key part of the company, the stock went down. Maybe a $3 trillion market cap on Microsoft is a lot of weight to push up hill. We could see more of this during this earnings season as Amazon, Apple and Meta release their own reports. The “Magnificent Seven” that were responsible for most of the 24% gain in the S&P in 2023 are beginning to wobble. My hope was for more market leaders to emerge but that doesn’t seem to be happening. I don’t expect “wobble” to cause anything that terrible in the market, but a sideways move is likely as investors ponder their next move.
January 30, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
It is perhaps too early to draw meaningful conclusions, but Microsoft’s failure to jump in after-hours trading on better than expected earnings sure seems like more evidence that this is a market priced to perfection.
January 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, F, GM, Mid Term, TSLA, Videos |
Today’s Trend of the Week video is Bad News from Tesla is even worse news for other electric vehicle companies. On January 24, after the close, Tesla announced a slight miss on their earnings report. Guidance was rather sparse but grim. Sales grew at about 38% in 2023, well below the 50% target that Tesla regularly touts. The 2024 guidance is even below that, (Wall Street estimates 24%). While this isn’t great for Tesla, it’s much worse for companies like Ford, GM and Volkswagen who are trying to figure out how much to spend and when to build market share for electric vehicles. The companies have been using estimates based on Tesla likely prices and profit margins in order to build their own projectors for their own profitability in electric vehicles. Those estimates, thanks to recent guidance from Tesla, appear to badly outdated, especially if Tesla is considering cutting prices again. Now companies like GM and Ford will have to decide how much pain, and for how long, they’re willing to take in order to get into this market.
January 27, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
It’s a Federal Reserve meeting week, but I expect Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report for its December quarter to be the big event of the week. With the potential to move the tech sector and the market.
January 26, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, V |
After the close yesterday, Visa (V) reported earnings of $2.41 a share (after adjusting for one-time items) for the December 2023 quarter. (That the company’s fiscal first quarter.) Analysts had been looking for $2.34 a share in adjusted earnings. Revenue grew 8.8% to $8.63 billion, again beating analyst forecasts for $8.55 billion in revenue. Visa said payments volume grew 8%, and that its processed transactions rose 9% in the period. And yet the stock was down $4.70 a share, or 1.72%, to $267.91 at the close today, Friday, January 26. Why?
January 24, 2024 | AMAT, AMD, ASML, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Shares of ASML Holding (ASML) closed up 8.85% today after the company reported record orders for its chip-making equipment in the fourth quarter. ASML sales grew 12.5% year-over-year. And orders more than tripled from the third-quarter. I added shares of ASML Holding to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio on December 12, 2023. The position is up 17.6% since then as of the close on January 24.
January 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, MMM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
3M (MMM) fell 11.03% today, Tuesday, January 23, the most in nearly five years, after announcing projections for 2024 sales and earnings below Wall Street expectations. Now granted that 3M is a special case–the company is engaged in a huge restructuring effort that has met with a high degree of investor skepticism. In short, investors doubt that the company can pull it off without cutting its dividend. So the stock is especially sensitive to any news that suggest that the restructuring is failing. But the stock’s big drop today is also an indication of how worried this market, trading at record highs, is about the possibility that earnings growth for the fourth quarter, the subject of the current earnings season, won’t support prices at these levels.
January 22, 2024 | AMD, Daily JAM, NVDA |
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January 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were up almost 10% yesterday after the company announced an unexpectedly strong return to growth. That has in turn pushed chip stocks higher across the sector. For example, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which were already moving higher this week ahead of the news, hit a new record high today. The good news from semiconductor companies and the moves on their stock have also rallied the general market.
