Z-SYMBOLS
June 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, MRNA, Volatility |
Can you say rollercoaster? In 2022, the biotech company generated sales of nearly $18.9 billion, all of it from sales of its Covid-19 vaccine but it expects revenue of only $4 billion this year. On February 14, 2023, shares sold for $175.62. On $86.04 on February 14, 2024 they traded at $86.04. Today, June 11, they closed at 148.39. I added them to my Volatility Portfolio at $157.10 on April 14,2023. That position was still down 5.54% as of the close on June 11. But I think the rally is still in its early stages. Why the turnaround now?
June 11, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Traders and investors reacted to Apple’s (AAPO) AI announcements during the first days of the company’s World Wide Developers Conference with enthusiasm today sending the stock up 7.26% in June 11 trading. That’s a new all-time high for the stock. Technology analysts were at best mixed. Their more tepid response set the tone yesterday when the stock dropped 1.9%. Typical was this from KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel in a client note: Apple’s AI enhancements aren’t compelling enough for the average consumer to purchase a new device. I’m with the tech folks on this and today I made Apple a sell in my Special Report: Trade Wars! Trade Wars!
June 10, 2024 | Daily JAM, FLIN, Perfect Five-ETFs |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
June 5, 2024 | AMAT, ASML, Daily JAM, Long Term, Mid Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks |
This Special Report; Trade War! Trade War! gives you my recommendations for what to sell, where to take profits, and where to trim as seen through the lens of a likely global trade war. Here are my choices with my first 3 sells
May 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Yesterday, May 22, after the market close, Nvidia (NVDA) crushed Wall Street projections for revenue and earnings for the company’s fiscal first quarter of 2025. Nvidia reported that revenue soared 262% year-over-year to a record $26 billion, marking an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 461% to $6.12. The Wall Street consensus had called for revenue of $24.65 billion and earnings per share of $5.59. And it even beat the Wall Street “whisper number,” which in a bullish momentum situation like this runs considerably above the official consensus. Data center revenue hit a record $22.6 billion, up 427% year over year. Data center revenue represents 87% of Nvidia’s total sales. For the current fiscal second quarter of 2025 Nvidia told investors to expect sales of $28 billion, up 107% year over year.
May 8, 2024 | AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Long Term, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Cloud Service Infrastructure Stocks. Normally I’ll choose a specific individual stock for Quick Picks but in this case, I thought I should highlight the entire sector. It’s impossible to overstate the importance of AI technology’s effect on the economy as a whole but it’s also important to look at the individual companies and sectors that benefit from the demand this technology brings to the market. AI has created a revival of growth in the cloud service infrastructure sector, as demand for more processing on databases to run AI programming continues to increase. The sector has seen a revenue growth of about 21% year over year in the first quarter of 2024. The sector is dominated by three companies with Amazon (AMZN) holding the largest share at 31%, and Microsoft (MSFT) with 24% and Alphabet (Google) (GOOG) with 11.5%. This is a $300 billion market, and those three companies have about 66% of it. Smaller players like Alibaba (BABA) and Oracle (ORCL) have A LOT smaller shares at 4% and 3%. However, even that 3% of the market puts Oracle’s cloud revenue at $5.1 billion in the most recent quarter. Revenue in this sector is likely to continue to grow and it looks like good news for all of these companies that set the tone for the market. This is yet another way to get in on the AI boom.
May 3, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, NVDA, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Go Away in May? Historically, the months between November and May were much more profitable than the months from May to November. The saying “Go away in May” came from that distribution of returns, suggesting investors should get out of the market during the less profitiable May to November period. This advice holds particularly true for tech stocks, which have very clear seasonal revenue patterns. For example, in March of 2023, Apple (AAPL) earned $1.52 per share, in June earnings per share went down to $1.26, in September they went back up to $1.46 and then the company blew it out in December to $2.18. While this isn’t indicative of the entire tech sector, it’s a good example of this seasonal pattern, especially for technology stocks with big consumer businesses. So what about this May? I’d say, you can probably “go away”–but maybe a little late than usual. NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings come out on the 22nd of May and will likely be giant. Current Wall Street estimates have earnngs per share at $5.14, up from $.88 a year ago. After that,the technology sector is relatively quiet. The next big tech event to look out for is Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June, which could result in “buzzy” tech announcements about AI. After that, I don’t see a lot of reason to be overweight technology and I’ll look to take some profits. I think this amounts to a modest Go Away in May call.
May 2, 2024 | BEPC, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Long Term, Stock Alerts |
Microsoft will buy more than 10.5 GW of clean energy from Brookfield Asset Management and its Brookfield Renewable affiliate (BEPC), the companies announced on Wednesday, May 1. Shares of Brookfield Renewable were up 5.13% today, May 2, on the news. I added Brookfield Renewable to my Dividend Portfolio on March 26, 2024. The shares are up 10.82% since then as of the close on May 2. They pay a dividend of 5.52%.
May 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Special Reports, UNG, Volatility |
I think that rather than trying to hedge market or sector direction in the 2024 market, I’m going to look for plays on the long side that will gain even if the market goes nowhere or tumbles, In other words, in financial jargon, I’m going to look for sectors and stocks that are uncorrelated with market direction rather than looking for sectors and stocks that are anti-correlated (where my gains depend on a downturn in the market.) That’s the logic with Step #5 today. Go long natural gas ahead of what is shaping up as a really, really hot summer.
April 30, 2024 | ALV, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Autoliv Inc (ALV). Autoliv makes auto safety equipment from seatbelts to newer products such as driver assistance and lane keep. They have a 45% global share of the global auto safety market with growing penetration in China. (China is now about 22% of sales). With a 40% market share in China, the company has room to grow, especially as China exports more and more vehicles. As Chinese car exports grow, so too will Autoliv’s sales of safety products. Chinse cars for the domestic market include 2-3 Autoliv products. Cars for the export market include 4-5. Autoliv just announced earnings on April 25 which beat estimates by about 18% with about a 70-80% increase in earnings year over year. Morningstar calls the stock fairly valued, I think that’s an underestimate. The price to sales on the stock is currently at 0.97 and the trailing 12-month PE is 19.17, and the forward EPS is at 13. The shares also offer a 2.1% dividend yield with a buyback yield of 4.7%. Free cash flow is rising (up $170 million last year) even while the company is investing more in China, India, and Vietnam. Autoliv has also shown a solid increase in operating margin in the most recent quarter from 5.17% to 7.4% and management is hoping to drive that up to 10%. I’m adding the shares to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio.
April 29, 2024 | CMG, Daily JAM, Volatility |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
April 25, 2024 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Long Term, Mid Term, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
After the close today, Alphabet (GOOG) reported revenue of $80.5 billion, easily beating the consensus projection of $78.7 billion. Earning per share came in at $1.89 versus expectations for $1.50 a share. And none of the worries before the news turned out to be problems. Advertising revenue rose 13% to $61.7 billion. Ad revenue for YouTube–an area of worry rose 21% to $8.09 billion. Subscriptions, platforms and devices revenue jumped 18%.
